Hello all, hope the off-season is finding you well! It’s March Madness time again, and I crunched some numbers to pick out a bracket and figure I’d share with everyone. I’m guessing any money I make off all of you clicking on ads will be more than I will make by winning my brackets.
This year I’ve read a few articles using our “money pick” idea, i.e. not necessarily picking who has the best chance of winning but who has the best chances of winning but picked by the least number of people. ESPN has an article Value Picks Key to Bracket Success. Their money pick is Gonzaga over Duke, and that Duke is overrated. Now the data proves what we’ve known for years! Another article, by Slate, encourages you to “act like a hedge fund manager.” (Sports plus investing… dear to my heart. I’m in the process of starting up InvestingGM.com, which uses sports analogies to talk about stock market investing. Check out the beginnings of it, if you like the concept sign up for the email list!).
So here are the probabilities of winning (taken from a random website I found by Misix, mainly because the data was in an easily spreadsheetable format) and public picks from ESPN. In addition to the green money picks, I also made red anti-money, overrated picks (with Duke being one of them). I didn’t have any rhyme or reason to the color coding, so if you find more money picks (or overrated picks) put them in the comments below! Good luck.
(For people who are new to this, if you’re in a league with lots of people, pick more green picks. If you’re in a league with not many people, just pick more who have a higher percentage of winning).
Click here for full spreadsheet