Welcome back everyone, and welcome to all the new people who found this site for the 2015 season! Had a great time last year, and learned a lot, and hopefully we can make this season a profitable one for all! I’ve almost gotten over the terrible loss to the Seahawks last year (for the new people on the site, you will find out I’m a die hard Packer fan) and I’m looking forward to opening with the beloved Chicago Bears this week. Shout out to all the people from Chicago on this site!
I tried to keep most of the stuff the same as last year, as it worked out pretty well. I am working on premium features for people who sponsored, including access to the actual spreadsheet I use so you can come up with your own strategies. I also have a couple of other strategies I’d like to try this year, and this will also give you access to these as well. Keep your eyes open for these in the near future!
And here are the picks to kickoff the 2015 NFL season:

Money picks for this week include:

  • Baltimore (33% win probability with 8% of the public picking them) over Denver
  • St. Louis (34% win probability with 9% of the public picking them) over Seattle


  • Jacksonville (39% win prob, 14% picked) over Carolina
  • Buffalo (42% win prob, 12% picked) over Indianapolis

There’s one blue pick. Blue picks are relatively safe, but don’t buy you much in terms of contrariness. So these are good candidates to “bump up” a few points from the base points:

  • Minnesota (58% win prob, 47% picked) over SF

There are two schools of thought for early in the year… One is you should take more risks because it’s harder to predict earlier in the year, so people will probably be wrong a lot anyway so even if you miss it won’t be bad. Two is to stay with the base picks to see if you can pick up a rogue win and at the same time keeping you in the overall points race. So, let’s get this party started!

How did you do last week?
465 votes


***Update Thursday, Sept 10****

Updated with new win probabilities and % public picked… Some sight reordering, but no change to money picks. Also people started to figure out Tom Brady is actually playing.