Are you ready for a sneak preview of the Confidence Pool Picks for Week 1? If you need a little refresher on how to use this info, check out step-by-step guide.
But in a nutshell, here’s what you want to do:

  1. Put in the base picks, in other words choose all the favorites and put in the “Base pts” for all the teams you choose.
  2. Pick a colored “money pick” or two and bump up the confidence points on them. If you want to take a bigger risk, pick the money pick for more points. Bigger risk means better chance of winning the weekly prize, but lowers your chance of winning the overall season. Also, with bigger leagues (say 50 or more) you need to take bigger risks to win. You can get a feel for it as the season progresses, but previous studies show one green money pick all in (16 points or highest possible points in a week) gives you the best chance of winning a week.

Here are the base picks for this week:
Updated Monday 10:38 AM Eastern

***MONEY PICKS: PREMIUM MEMBER CONTENT***

Here are the “Money Picks,” or picks that you can take a shot at to get into the money. These teams are neglected by the public but have a decent chance of winning. So, you pick one or two of these teams and give it a high confidence point.
These picks will be emailed to Premium members during the season. But for now, here’s a free preview of the picks. If you’re interested in becoming a Premium member,  click here.
Updated Monday 10:38 AM Eastern
 
This week, SF, Jacksonville, and the Clippers – I mean the Chargers – are good “green” picks, or picks that very little people are picking. SF has only 7% of the crowd picking them,  Jacksonville 6%, and LA 10%. But, SF and Jax have a 32% win probability and the Chargers have a 39% win probability. So, if they win and you pick them high, it can rocket you pretty far up the standings.
Green Picks: SF, Jacksonville, LA Chargers
Yellow picks have more people picking them, so it won’t separate you as much from the crowd, but it’s less risky because they have higher win probabilities. This week, Tennessee is an awesome yellow pick as only 25% of the people picked them, but they actually are favored and have a 54% chance of winning. Other ones are Seattle and Baltimore.
Yellow picks: Tennessee(!), Seattle, Baltimore
Blue picks are favorites (higher win probability) and more people are picking them than the yellow and green picks, but they are somewhat overlooked. These picks are good to “bump up” (or pick higher than their base pick points indicate) to separate yourself from the crowd a bit. This week, Minnesota is a very high blue pick as they have a 61% chance of winning but only 56% of the crowd has picked them.
Blue pick: Minnesota
So there you have it! It bears repeating, if you want to win the overall season, stick with mostly base picks. If you want to win the week, take some risk (go higher with the money picks). The bigger the league, the more risk you have to take. Good luck this year!