Week 11 Base Pick Points: 54
Season Base Pick Points: 905
This was a hectic week in the NFL, with a lot of exciting games that went down to the wire. The Week 11 Picks were very successful if you chose the correct upsets that we mentioned. The Denver Broncos and the Oakland Raiders made for a great Green Pick and Yellow Pick respectively. They both pulled out big late-game upsets on offensive drives that resulted in winning field goals as time expired. The Detroit Lions upset the Carolina Panthers after the Panthers attempted a 2-point conversion to win the game. It was a game that we recommended as a good Medium Risk Pick and High Risk Pick if combined with the Indianapolis Colts Blue Pick who also won their own game. The Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars Green Picks were the only picks that did not hit last week. The Jaguars looked to be a good pick as they dominated the whole game only to let the Steelers score a game winning touchdown with less than 10 seconds left on the clock.
Picks for Week 12:
(Updated Wed. 8:00 PM ET)
CPP Strategy Pick Options:
CPP Money Pick Analysis:
(5-5) Tennessee Titans @ (7-3) Houston Texans:
The Titans showed their inconsistency on offense once again after losing to the Indianapolis Colts last week 10-38 despite crushing the New England Patriots 34-10 the week prior. They are reliant on any kind of offensive production with a strong defensive performance. With the Texans having a weak and banged up offensive line, the Titans solid run defense should be able to stall the Texans run game. If the Titans’ mobile linebackers can contain Watson’s legs and create some sacks, the Titans may stay long enough in the game to allow their offense to put some points on the board against an impressive Texans defense.
NOTE: Titans QB Marcus Mariota is Questionable to play for this game, if he is determined Out then this should not be considered a money pick.
(5-5) Miami Dolphins @ (5-5) Indianapolis Colts:
The Dolphins let up a lot of points against quality offenses and they’ll be facing one who has put up at least 29 in 6 out of their last 7 games. The Dolphins are happy to hear this week that QB Ryan Tannehill will be returning from a shoulder injury that had him sidelined since week 5. This could spark some much needed offensive production through the air, in a game where they’ll be in a shoot out against Andrew Luck’s offense. The Dolphins have been reliant on their run game recently and the Colt’s strong run game should be able to curb that production. So if the Dolphins can successfully drive the ball down the field and somehow slow down the Colts offense, they will have a chance to make for a valuable green pick with only 6% picking them.
(4-6) Detroit Lions vs (7-3) Chicago Bears:
The Detroit Lions are again a money pick this week after upsetting the Carolina Panthers last week. They will go up against a tough division rival in the Chicago Bears who just beat them 2 weeks ago 34-22 in Chicago. All things created equal from last game, the matchup key in this game will be the QBs versus the defenses. Lions QB Matthew Stafford threw for 275 yards, 2 TD’s and 2 interceptions against one of the league’s best Bears defense and will need to do better in order to win. They will also be missing their best RB and best WR due to injury which won’t help that situation any more. The Lions poor pass defense will need to try and get some sacks to generate defensive pressure on the mildly injured Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky who torched their defense last game. The Lions have a large uphill battle for this game, but being division rivals for a home game on Thanksgiving, the Lions still have a good chance of getting a win with a 37% calculated win probability.
(2-8) San Francisco 49ers @ (3-7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
The San Francisco 49ers coming off of a bye week are still rolling with 3rd string QB Nick Mullens who has been impressive in his first 2 NFL starts beating the Oakland Raiders badly and going toe to toe with the New York Giants. Their opponent, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have only won 1 game since week 2 and that was an overtime win against the Browns. The Buccaneers have been switching between their two QB’s almost weekly as both continue to badly struggle. They will hand the reins over to Jameis Winston this week and he will be the deciding factor for whether the Buccaneers can regain the power in their passing attack. This would allow them to power through the 49ers team, but for that to happen is not a sure bet, even when in sunny Tampa Bay. Therefore I believe the 49ers are a good bet for an “upset” this week and at 16% picked give great value.
(4-6) Denver Broncos vs (7-2) Pittsburgh Steelers:
The Broncos are again a money pick after upsetting the Los Angeles Chargers last week. This is actually a very similar game to last week’s as they will go up another strong offense but now an above average defense versus the Chargers’ average defense. The Broncos have the best yards per rush in the league and will need to successfully run the ball against a good steelers run defense in order to move the ball down the field. This would allow them to control the clock, keeping the Steelers offense off the field like the Jaguars did last week as they rushed the ball 41 times and played great defense to hold the Steelers to 14 points for the first 59 minutes of the game. The Broncos are at home but will have another tough task at hand this week against the Steelers.
(5-4) Minnesota Vikings vs (4-5) Green Bay Packers:
The Green Bay Packers have been a big disappointment this year, struggling to play quality football regularly. The Minnesota Vikings after going to the NFC Championship last year have also struggled to beat the good teams they have faced this year. These two met earlier in the season, resulting in a 29-29 tie. A positive note for the Vikings is that Packers’ TE Jimmy Graham will be hindered with a broken thumb and will attempt to play through it.
(3-7) Jacksonville Jaguars @ (3-7) Buffalo Bills:
The Jacksonville Jaguars make the money pick list once again, coming as a blue pick this time. They seemed to turn their team around last week after almost beating the Steelers and will be facing a far lesser of an opponent in the Bills. The Bills will be aided by playing at home this week and having rookie QB Josh Allen coming off an elbow injury that lasted 5 weeks. But other than that the Jaguars have a strong pass defense which should keep the Bills offense in check.