Week 3 Base Pick Points: 72 

Season Base Pick Points: 246

The lesson this week: 6% is not 0%. What a surprise win by the Bills over Minnesota, who was heavily favored. This week showed a ton of big upsets, which resulted in low base pick points this week. It just goes to show, upsets do happen so don’t be afraid to go after those money picks if you need to take some risk (I wouldn’t recommend a 6% team, just the money picks). 

How did you do last week?
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Here are the picks for Week 4:

Updated Wed 4:30 PM ET

Green Picks: NYG, TEN, CIN 
Best pick out of the bunch is the Giants, but all three are pretty similar. If you’re finding yourself pretty low in the overall standings and want to go with a green pick, I’d go with NYG. 

Yellow Pick: HOU
Houston is a borderline yellow/blue pick this week, it’s a little low in win probability for a blue pick (46%) but has a decently low picked percentage (35%). Houston would be a tweener pick if you want to take some risk but not too much.

Blue Picks: DAL, OAK
Both are good blue picks this week, at a win probability around 60% and around 50% picked. Bump these teams up if you want to separate yourself but not take too much risk to your overall score.

My pick:
I’m currently 7th overall out of 45 in my league, so I’m looking to go a little more conservative. I’m probably going not go with any yellow or green picks this week, and bump Oakland and Dallas up to about 10/11.