Hello and welcome to Week 1 of the 2019 season! We have a fresh new look and a fresh new perspective. The tables this year will look different. They’re going to be responsive (i.e. they’ll change size depending on how big of a screen or phone you’re looking at). And I’m no longer using a bunch of Google spreadsheets! If you’re new to confidence pools, check out this post.

In general, posts will be up on Tuesdays, and do an update as needed, usually Wednesday evening or Thursday morning.

Here are the Week 1 picks…

Base Picks (what are base picks?): Updated Wednesday 11:55 PM Pacific

Base PickPickSpreadWin Prob% PickedAvg ConfUnderdogWin Prob% PickedAvg Conf
16PHI10.082%98%10.3WAS18%2%4.7
15SEA8.579%98%10.3CIN21%2%4.6
14DAL8.076%94%8.5NYG24%6%4.1
13NOS7.075%96%9.0HOU25%4%4.7
12BAL7.075%93%7.6@MIA25%7%4.2
11LAC6.573%95%7.6IND27%5%4.7
10CLE5.570%94%8.0TEN30%6%4.5
9NEP5.569%88%7.5PIT31%12%3.7
8MIN4.066%78%5.8ATL34%22%4.3
7CHI3.565%72%5.7GBP35%28%4.4
6KCC3.062%95%9.6@JAC38%5%4.3
5NYJ3.061%81%5.7BUF39%19%4.2
4LAR2.559%87%7.6@CAR41%13%4.4
3DET2.558%57%4.1@ARI42%43%3.8
2DEN0.051%35%4.5@OAK49%65%4.5
1SFO0.051%49%4.1@TBB49%51%4.1

Money Picks (What are money picks?):

Green Picks: 1. Jacksonville 2. Tennessee. The Jaguars lead us off with a 36% win probability but only 6% picked, followed by the Titans at 30%/7%.

Yellow Picks: 1. Carolina 2. Buffalo. Carolina is a great yellow pick at a 41% win probability but only 12% picked. Next best is Buffalo at 39%/18%.

Blue Pick: Detroit. Detroit is an OK blue, lower risk pick at 58% win probability but only 58% picked.

[Wednesday update: Denver was added as a blue pick, it’s a bit low on win probability but only 33% picked]

As a review, start with the base picks listed above first. Then determine if you’re going to go lower risk or higher risk. You’d go lower risk if you have a smaller league and/or going for the highest points of the whole season, while you’re going for higher risk if you’ve got a bigger league and/or are going for the win for the week.

For higher risk/higher reward, you could pick Jacksonville at 16 and then move all the base picks down. For a medium (but in this case still pretty good) risk, you could put Carolina at 16 and move everyone down. For a lower risk, you can move Detroit up to maybe 10 and move everyone else down. Since this is week one, it’s completely up to you! It’s probably better to go with lower risk in the beginning of the season to see if you can go for a weekly win AND a season win, but it’s up to you! Good luck this year!

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