Week 9 is complete and we’re officially past the half way point in the season. 5 upsets this week, but no major ones based on point spread. With the Patriots loss and the Dolphins win, we’re down to one undefeated team (49ers) and one unvictorious team (Bengals).

[How to evaluate your picks from previous week]

Here’s a review of last week’s picks:

Green Picks (1-1) – CHI put up 9 total yards in the first half against the Eagles. Needless to say, they did not win that game.

The Packers didn’t fare much better with 50 yards in the first half coupled with multiple pre-snap penalties. LAC controlled the entire game and eventually broke through the defense in the second half with two touchdowns.

Yellow Picks (1-1) – It took an overseas trip to London, but Gardner Minshew finally looked like a rookie in this game. Houston easily put away JAC as Minshew had 4 turnovers (2 INTs and 2 lost fumbles).

Oddsmakers turned PIT into a favorite shortly before the game. With the help of an early injury to the Colt’s Brissett, PIT was able to win a close game at home.

Blue Picks (1-1) – Denver knocked off CLE with a surprisingly balanced attack of Phillip Linsday and first-time starter Brandon Allen. In a back and forth game, OAK won and scored the go ahead TD with 2 minutes left in the game.
Season Record:
Green Picks (7-10)
Yellow Picks (6-11)
Blue Picks (8-9)
Week 9 Base Picks: 77 points
Season Total Base Picks: 762 points

 

Here are the picks for Week 10:

Base Picks (what are base picks?): Updated Thursday 12:17 AM Pacific

Base PickPickSpreadWin Prob% PickedUnderdogWin Prob% Picked
13NOS13.085%99%ATL15%1%
12IND10.081%98%MIA19%2%
11BAL10.081%99%@CIN19%1%
10SFO6.071%70%SEA29%30%
9KCC6.070%96%@TEN30%4%
8GBP5.068%94%CAR32%6%
7TBB4.567%79%ARI33%21%
6LAR3.563%87%@PIT37%13%
5DAL3.060%64%MIN40%36%
4CLE3.058%24%BUF42%76%
3NYG2.556%83%@NYJ44%17%
2CHI2.555%45%DET45%55%
1LAC1.552%45%@OAK48%55%

Money Picks (What are money picks?):

With 6 teams on bye, it’s a good week to take on some more risk. This week is worth less than other weeks. The maximum overall point total week 10 will be the lowest for the season. It’s only out of 91 points vs. a 136 point week for weeks with no byes.

Biggest movers and shakers (updated Wednesday):

Win% –

This week on Mahomes Watch:

KCC +5.9%; CLE +2.0%; DAL + 1.6%; DET + 1.3%

Pick Rate –

Public is out on the current dumpster fire of a situation for the Jets.

NYJ -5%; CHI -3%; CLE -2%

Green Picks (lowest pick rate):

Wednesday Update: No changes to the picks

TEN is still a green pick (30% win; 4% pick), but Vegas has downgraded them as Patrick Mahomes has gotten in a full practice. Should be a fun one as Vegas expecting a decent amount of offense.

CAR at 32% win; 6% pick looks to keep rolling on the Kyle Allen train against the Packers. They’ll be leaning on him for the rest of the season as Cam Newton has been placed on IR. Packers show up again in a money pick matchup as they’re moderate favorites, but a disproportionately high level of % picked.

Tuesday Update: More details on Wed

CAR – 32% win; 7% pick

TEN – 36% win; 4% pick

Yellow Picks (low pick rate):

Wednesday Update: No changes to the picks

PIT is still the pick at 37% win; 13% pick. The Steelers seem to always be in the money picks as well. Public opinion is down on them with Mason Rudolph at the helm and a middling offense. But reality is they’re typically moderate underdogs as their defense keeps them in games.

NYJ at 44% win; 17% pick is a solid pick this week. It’s scary to trust the Jets with Adam Gase still at the helm, but they’re in a winnable matchup. Vegas has them as a slight underdog against a struggling Giants team with a rookie QB.

Tuesday Update: More details on Wed

PIT – 37% win; 14% pick

NYJ – 44% win; 22% pick

Blue Picks (medium pick rate):

Wednesday Update:

CLE gets the double bump of higher win% and lower pick%. They’re at 58% win; 24% pick. This is really an honorary yellow pick due to the pick% and some skepticism over the win%. We typically take Vegas as the best predictor, but CLE is 0-3 against the spread at home and Buffalo is 3-0 against the spread in away games. Still a good game though if we take it as a medium risk bet.

CHI is at 55% win; 45% pick. This will be the battle of Detroit’s aerial attack (which has really been clicking) against Chicago’s top flight pass defense. Vegas expecting the Bears to hold things in check as they’re 2.5 point favorites with a lower over/under of 41.5.

Tuesday Update: More details on Wed

CLE – 56% win; 26% pick

CHI – 56% win; 48% pick

Suggested Picks by Strategy

Our low, medium, and high risk strategy suggested picks! This gives you some suggestions of picks you can make depending on what strategy you’re looking to take. If you’re low in the standings and have nothing to lose, go with the higher risk. Feel free to substitute different money picks if you have a better feeling for another team. Hope these are helpful to you!

PointsBase (Lowest)Some RiskMed RiskHigh Risk
13NOSNOSNOSNOS
12INDINDINDIND
11BALBALBALBAL
10SFOCLENYJTEN
9KCCSFOSFOSFO
8GBPKCCKCCGBP
7TBBGBPGBPTBB
6LARTBBTBBLAR
5DALLARLARDAL
4CLEDALDALCLE
3NYGNYGCLENYG
2CHICHICHICHI
1LACLACLACLAC

 

How did you do last week? Who are you going with this week? Got any questions? Post your question or comment below!