Raindrops on roses and whiskers on kittens… destroyed

Bright copper kettles and warm woolen mittens… disintegrated

Brown paper packages tied up with strings… incinerated

All of your favorites were obliterated this week.

 

Hope you were able to take on a couple of the money picks and take advantage of the 13 game week! This was the perfect storm of events (least number of games, a ton of upsets, and most of the money picks hitting).

[How to evaluate your picks from previous week]

Here’s a review of last week’s picks:

Green Picks (1-1) –

TEN was able to keep pace the Chiefs despite the typical Mahomes highlight reel. The Titans returning a Damien Williams fumble for a TD was the difference maker.

CAR lost a close one to the Packers at snowy Lambeau field. The Packers hung on to a touchdown lead as McCaffrey was stopped inches from the goal line as time expired.

Yellow Picks (2-0) –

PIT once again relied on their terrific defense to completely bottle up the Rams offense. Goff was 22-41 with 2 picks and 3 fumbles (1 lost).

In the game where most expected very little defense, NYJ came out on top. A defensive TD was the difference maker in this game as well. Jamal Adams came up with the play of the game by snatching the ball out of Daniel Jones’ hands and taking it to the house.

Blue Picks (2-0) –

CLE won a close game at home against the Bills. Buffalo’s amazing goal line defense eventually broke and gave up a TD at the end of the game.

With Stafford surprisingly being declared out on Sunday, CHI became heavy favorites by the time the game started. Detroit still put up a fight with Jeff Driskel and lost to the Bears by a touchdown.

Season Record:
Green Picks (8-11)
Yellow Picks (8-11)
Blue Picks (10-9)
Week 10 Base Picks: 32 points?!?! We knew this would be a low scoring week, but this is just nuts.
Season Total Base Picks: 794 points

Here are the picks for Week 11:

Base Picks (what are base picks?): Updated Wednesday 11:03 PM Pacific

Base PickPickSpreadWin Prob% PickedUnderdogWin Prob% Picked
14SFO11.084%98%ARI16%2%
13MIN10.584%98%DEN16%2%
12OAK10.582%98%CIN18%2%
11LAR6.573%87%CHI27%13%
10DAL6.071%85%@DET29%15%
9BUF6.070%89%@MIA30%11%
8NOS5.569%91%@TBB31%9%
7CAR5.569%88%ATL31%12%
6BAL4.066%92%HOU34%8%
5KCC3.563%90%@LAC37%10%
4NEP3.562%86%@PHI38%14%
3CLE3.058%43%PIT42%57%
2IND3.057%71%JAC43%29%
1WAS1.553%46%NYJ47%54%

Money Picks (What are money picks?):

Biggest movers and shakers (to be updated Wednesday):

Win% –

DAL 6.8%; OAK 2.0%; LAC 1.8%

Stafford has not been practicing so he might be out another game. This will be something that you’ll want to keep an eye on closer to game time for the DAL/DET matchup.

Pick Rate –

no updates

Green Picks (lowest pick rate):

Wednesday Update: TBB and HOU are still the picks. New Orleans coming fresh off a comprehensive loss to the previously one win Falcons, now have to travel to Tampa Bay, another in-division opponent. HOU faces off with Baltimore in the matchup of stellar offenses vs previously stellar defenses. Both games should provide a ton of fireworks as the Over/Under is set at 50.

TBB- 31% win, 9% pick

HOU- 34% win, 8% pick

Tuesday Update: More details on Wed

TBB- 32% win, 9% pick

HOU- 34% win, 8% pick

 

Yellow Picks (low pick rate):

Wednesday Update:

Detroit is off the board as a pick if Stafford is not playing. LAC is the new yellow pick. LAC and Kansas City square off and the Chargers will try to use the “run a lot/shorten the game” strategy with Gordon and Ekeler.

New England is coming off of their first loss of the season and a bye, so they should be prepared. However, they face their toughest opponent outside of Baltimore as they head to PHI.

LAC- 37% win, 10% pick

PHI- 38% win, 14% pick

 

Tuesday Update: More details on Wed

DET- 36% win, 15% pick

PHI- 38% win, 14% pick

Blue Picks (medium pick rate):

CLE- 58% win, 43% pick

Similar situation as last week as CLE plays at home against the Steelers. The Steelers defense has been playing better than the Bills, so it will be up to Baker and Co. to manufacture enough points in this game.

Tuesday Update: More details on Wed

CLE- 58% win, 43% pick

Suggested Picks by Strategy

Our low, medium, and high risk strategy suggested picks! This gives you some suggestions of picks you can make depending on what strategy you’re looking to take. If you’re low in the standings and have nothing to lose, go with the higher risk. Feel free to substitute different money picks if you have a better feeling for another team. Hope these are helpful to you!

PointsBase (Lowest)Some RiskMed RiskHigh Risk
14SFOSFOSFOSFO
13MINMINMINMIN
12OAKOAKOAKOAK
11LARCLEPHIHOU
10DALLARLARLAR
9BUFDALDALDAL
8NOSBUFBUFBUF
7CARNOSNOSNOS
6BALCARCARCAR
5KCCBALBALKCC
4NEPKCCKCCNEP
3CLENEPCLECLE
2INDINDINDIND
1WASWASWASWAS

 

How did you do last week? Who are you going with this week? Got any questions? Post your question or comment below!