Week 11 was a return to normalcy. Most of the favorites took care of business, although not without a bit of a scare. SFO wiped away an early 16-pt Arizona lead by halftime. MIN needed to outscore Denver 20-0 in the fourth to take their game.

[How to evaluate your picks from previous week]

Here’s a review of last week’s picks:

Green Picks (0-2) –

HOU was completely manhandled by Baltimore on both sides of the field and the Ravens are starting to look like the team to beat in the AFC.

New Orleans got back into the groove this week against TBB after a no-show against the Falcons last week. Business as usual as the Saints went up 20-0 and never looked back.

Yellow Picks (0-2) –

LAC lost a heartbreaking game to the Chiefs as they were able to move the ball and keep Mahomes in check. Unfortunately the turnovers caught up with the Chargers as Rivers’ fourth interception ended the game.

PHI, without DeSean Jackson for most of the season, and this game without Alshon Jeffery, just didn’t have the weapons to go up against one of the best defenses of this decade. The Patriots weren’t able to get much going on offense, but put up just enough points to win (with the help of an Edelman passing TD).

Blue Picks (1-0) –

CLE wins another game, this time in more dominating fashion. Pittsburgh wasn’t able to do anything on offense, and this game was pretty much over by the end of the first half.

Season Record:
Green Picks (8-13)
Yellow Picks (8-13)
Blue Picks (11-9)
Week 11 Base Picks: 97
Season Total Base Picks: 891 points

Here are the picks for Week 12:

Base Picks (what are base picks?): Updated Wednesday 10:19 PM Pacific

Base PickPickSpreadWin Prob% PickedUnderdogWin Prob% Picked
14CLE10.582%95%MIA18%5%
13NOS9.581%98%CAR19%2%
12NEP6.573%87%DAL27%13%
11PIT6.573%94%@CIN27%6%
10CHI6.073%86%NYG27%14%
9ATL4.567%89%TBB33%11%
8BUF4.066%90%DEN34%10%
7HOU3.563%84%IND37%16%
6DET3.562%92%@WAS38%8%
5BAL3.061%85%@LAR39%15%
4TEN3.061%75%JAC39%25%
3SFO3.060%48%GBP40%52%
2OAK3.057%87%@NYJ43%13%
1PHI1.553%24%SEA47%76%

Money Picks (What are money picks?):

Biggest movers and shakers (to be updated Wednesday):

Win% – IND (0.7%) vs HOU

Pick Rate – Tuesday pick rates data didn’t look quite right (maybe pulled too early), so there are big changes today:

LAR (-42%) vs BAL; PHI (-29%) vs SEA; TBB (-23%) vs ATL

NYJ (-18%) vs OAK; SFO (-17%) vs GBP; WAS (-16%) vs DET;

Green Picks (lowest pick rate):

Wednesday Update:

DEN (34% win and 10% pick) almost upsetting the Vikings last week now face 2 to 1 odds against Buffalo. Vegas is expecting a very low scoring game with the over/under at 37.5.

WAS (38% win and 8% pick) play the Lions in the Haskins-Driskel bowl. The Redskins chances in this one will come down whether the Redskins rookie QB can limit his mistakes (2 TDs, 5 INTs in 4 games).

Tuesday Update: More details on Wed

NYG- 27% win, 10% pick

DAL- 29% win, 10% pick

 

Yellow Picks (low pick rate):

Wednesday Update:

LAR (39% win and 15% pick) have a much bigger task this week facing off against the Ravens. The Rams may need to rely on new found life in the running game which happened after some turnover on the offensive line.

NYJ (43% win and 13% pick) is on a two game winning streak and Darnold may have gotten past the ghosts he saw in New England. The Jets face the Raiders who are on a winning streak of their own (3 games) in what should be a competitive game.

Tuesday Update: More details on Wed

WAS- 38% win, 24% pick

JAC- 39% win, 24% pick

Blue Picks (medium pick rate):

Wednesday Update:

SFO (60% win and 48% pick) are slight home favorites against the Packers this week. George Kittle isn’t practicing again and his status will most likely come down to a game time decision.

Tuesday Update: More details on Wed

BAL- 61% win, 43% pick

We’ll keep an eye on this game. The pick data is a little surprising with only 43% pick over the Rams.

Suggested Picks by Strategy

Our low, medium, and high risk strategy suggested picks! This gives you some suggestions of picks you can make depending on what strategy you’re looking to take. If you’re low in the standings and have nothing to lose, go with the higher risk. Feel free to substitute different money picks if you have a better feeling for another team. Hope these are helpful to you!

PointsBase (Lowest)Some RiskMed RiskHigh Risk
14CLECLECLECLE
13NOSNOSNOSNOS
12NEPSFONYJWAS
11PITNEPNEPNEP
10CHIPITPITPIT
9ATLCHICHICHI
8BUFATLATLATL
7HOUBUFBUFBUF
6DETHOUHOUHOU
5BALDETDETBAL
4TENBALBALTEN
3SFOTENTENSFO
2OAKOAKSFOOAK
1PHIPHIPHIPHI

 

How did you do last week? Who are you going with this week? Got any questions? Post your question or comment below!