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A great week for the upsets. If you were one of the ones that had no chance at the season long, this was your week to have a shot at the weekly prize.

[CPP Doctor Diagnosis #1: Two bad weeks]

Here’s a review of last week’s picks:

Green Picks (0-2) –

Hopefully, you were able to pivot off of the ATL game as Julio Jones was a late scratch. The Saints-Falcons game was a crazy game. Backup QB and gadget player Taysom Hill had two rushing TDs and a blocked punt. Matt Ryan did not look like himself all game (2 INTs, 2 fumbles with 1 lost) but the Falcons were able to claw back into it behind THREE recovered onsides kicks (one cancelled by penalty). Before the game, the success rate of onsides kicks had been 8%. ATL still lost in the end but gave us a thriller.

NYG was completely blown out by the Packers in a snowy game in New York. Rushing was about the same on both sides, but Aaron Rodgers (243 yds, 4 TDs) thoroughly outplayed rookie Daniel Jones (240 yds, 1 TD, 3 INTs). Jones is really hoping to get Engram back soon.

Yellow Picks (1-1) –

We had a good feeling about Andy Dalton returning and CIN with one of their last good chances at getting a victory. The Bengals played like a team on a mission and was able to get consistent pressure on Darnold for most of the game (4 sacks).

Thielen was declared OUT after the Sunday games started, which stunk for fantasy football and for people’s confidence pools. MIN looked like they were out of the game after a strong Seahawks 3rd quarter capped by 2 forced turnovers. The Vikings mounted a come back in the 4th quarter and forced a turnover of their own, but came up short.

Blue Picks (0-1) –

CLE took an early lead, but Devlin “Duck” Hodges was able to string together 4 straight scoring drives in the middle of the game by syncing up with James Washington a few times. That was enough points for the Steelers defense to take it the rest of the way. Steelers have been solid on defense all year, but Rudolph’s turnovers have been killing them. It will be interesting to see how far this team can go with Hodges at the helm.

For anyone who as able to change picks after Thursday, the TBB pivot would have been a good one. This wasn’t the shootout that Vegas was predicting. The Bucs defense played well and ultimately, the Jags benched Nick Foles. Good thing is we get Minshew Magic back again this coming week.

Season Record:
Green Picks (9-16) – regressing to the mean on these as these are typically around the 30% mark
Yellow Picks (10-15)
Blue Picks (12-10)
Week 13 Base Picks: 69 – bad week for base picks
Season Total Base Picks: 1047 points

Here are the picks for Week 14:

Base Picks (what are base picks?): Updated Thursday 12:56 AM Pacific

Base Pick Pick Spread Win Prob % Picked Underdog Win Prob % Picked
No data found

Money Picks (What are money picks?):

Biggest movers and shakers (to be updated Wednesday):

Win% –

DET (2.2%) vs MIN

PHI (2.2%) vs NYG – Eli Manning starting – which might be an upgrade

ARI (1.7%) vs PIT

DEN (1.1%) vs HOU

Pick Rate –

OAK (-6%) vs TEN

CHI (-4%) vs DAL

LAR (-3%) vs SEA

CAR/IND/KCC (-2%) vs ATL/TBB/NEP

Green Picks (lowest pick rate):

Wednesday Update:

No updates for the BUF pick (31% win; 12% pick). It will take some major cajones to pull the trigger on this pick, but Buffalo is coming off a dominating game in Dallas. The Bills defense is also elite, similar to the 49ers who were able to slow down the seemingly unstoppable Ravens offense last week.

Tuesday Update: More details on Wed

No picks fit our criteria for Green Picks, but the closest thing is the Bills:

BUF (31% win; 12% pick)

Yellow Picks (low pick rate):

Wednesday Update:

ARI (44% win; 15% pick) is looking for a bounce back game against PIT. Kyler Murray, who has been one of the few QBs able to move the ball against SF, put up a dud last week at home against LAR. ARI goes up against another tough defense but expect better results with Murray’s hamstring now recovered. The Cardinals will need to put up points as their defense hasn’t been able to stop anyone this season.

LAR (49% win; 20% pick) is surprisingly only a 20% pick in what is essentially a coin flip game. Seattle has been beatable on defense this year and the Rams are going into this with almost a full set of weapons (minus Everett) and a partially functioning offensive line.

Tuesday Update: More details on Wed

ARI (42% win; 16% pick)

LAR (48% win; 23% pick)

Blue Picks (medium pick rate):

Wednesday Update:

TBB (58% win; 43% pick) has been playing very well on both sides of the field of late. Last week, they emphasized the run due to high wind conditions and easily dispatched the Jaguars. The Bucs might stick to that plan as the Colts have a solid pass defense and a shaky run defense on the year. That will also protect Jameis who is leading the league in turnovers. The team is unsurprisingly 0-4 in games with 3+ Jameis Winston turnovers.

NEP (59% win; 49% pick) had an offense that looked old last week. The team didn’t blame the flu that was going around the locker room, but the team certainly played like it was sick. The final stat sheet looked ok due to a ton of garbage time points by Brady and James White. On the other side of the ball, we’ll get to see the #1 defense take on Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is starting to look more like a mortal as the Chiefs have been getting it done on the ground.

Tuesday Update: More details on Wed

TBB (58% win; 41% pick)

NEP (59% win; 47% pick)

Suggested Picks by Strategy

Our low, medium, and high risk strategy suggested picks! This gives you some suggestions of picks you can make depending on what strategy you’re looking to take. If you’re low in the standings and have nothing to lose, go with the higher risk. Feel free to substitute different money picks if you have a better feeling for another team. Hope these are helpful to you!

This week we demonstrate a different approach for low, medium, and high risk. Let’s say you’re not a big fan of the green pick of BUF upsetting Baltimore. I can’t blame you as Baltimore looks unstoppable against most teams. Below, we avoid the BUF upset, but we stack more lower risk money picks to help us differentiate against the field.

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How did you do last week? Who are you going with this week? Got any questions? Post your question or comment below!