Week 14 was the return of the favorites! And our Saturday Stack of TBB and LAR hit! Let us know in the comments how your week went.

[CPP Doctor Diagnosis #1: Two bad weeks]

Here’s a review of last week’s picks:

Green Picks (0-1) –

BUF played a valiant game against Baltimore (now winners of 9 straight) but came up short 24-17. Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews were beat up a little in this game, which gives hope to future opponents.

Yellow Picks (1-1) –

ARI’s defense has been like a sieve, but it matched up well against the army of backups for Pittsburgh (Hodges, Snell, and Diontae Johnson). Pittsburgh’s defense once again gave their team a chance (3 INTs) and their special teams delivered the difference maker with a punt return for a TD.

In the coin flip game, LAR got up early on Seattle and never looked back. The Rams have had success against Seattle in the recent past and now are 9-7 against Russell Wilson. Wilson is starting to look mortal now and may continue to struggle with his favorite target, Tyler Lockett, dealing with a leg injury.

Blue Picks (1-1) –

TBB plays in the most exciting games because of Jameis Winston’s arm. He’s chucking it like there’s no tomorrow and it doesn’t matter what color your jersey is, he’ll get you the ball. 4 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD, 3 interceptions, 1 of which was a pick 6. Mike Evans pulled his hamstring early on a deep TD reception and then Winston had to sit out a drive due to a fractured thumb. Winston came back and was still able to get the job done.

It was about this time last year when the Patriots lost two straight and everyone was thinking Brady and the team were running out of gas. It does feel a little different this year as NEP loses their second straight, this time to the Chiefs. There was a blown call in this one that robbed the Patriots of a TD and the potential to tie on a FG in the last drive. Be a little concerned if you’re a Patriots fan, as they couldn’t get anything going on the ground against a bottom quarter rush defense.

Season Record:
Green Picks (9-17)
Yellow Picks (11-16)
Blue Picks (13-11)
Week 14 Base Picks: 104 points
Season Total Base Picks: 1151 points

Here are the picks for Week 15:

Base Picks (what are base picks?): Updated Wednesday 11:56 PM Pacific

Base PickPickSpreadWin Prob% PickedUnderdogWin Prob% Picked
16BAL16.590%98%NYJ10%2%
15SFO11.084%95%ATL16%5%
14KCC9.581%96%DEN19%4%
13NEP9.580%98%@CIN20%2%
12NOS8.579%98%IND21%2%
11OAK6.571%92%JAC29%8%
10SEA6.070%97%@CAR30%3%
9GBP4.567%90%CHI33%10%
8PHI4.566%92%@WAS34%8%
7NYG3.562%70%MIA38%30%
6TBB3.562%80%@DET38%20%
5TEN3.058%54%HOU42%46%
4CLE2.557%80%@ARI43%20%
3MIN2.556%85%@LAC44%15%
2PIT2.055%33%BUF45%67%
1LAR1.052%75%@DAL48%25%

Money Picks (What are money picks?):

Biggest movers and shakers (to be updated Wednesday):

Win% –

BAL (2.5%) vs NYJ – Lamar Jackson expected to play

SFO (1.8%) vs ATL

NYG (0.8%) vs MIA

Pick Rate –

HOU (-5%) vs TEN

DET (-4%) vs TBB

LAC (-3%) vs MIN; ATL (-3%) vs SFO; DAL (-3%) vs LAR

PIT (-2%) vs BUF

Green Picks (lowest pick rate):

Wednesday Update:

Which CAR (30% win; 3% pick) team are we going to see this week? The one that ran all over Tennessee and went toe to toe with the Saints or the one that has been blown out by the Falcons 2 of the last 3? CAR has some hope here as they face a Seattle defense that has been bottom half in Rush Yards and Pass Yards per Attempt. The Seattle offense has been shaky of late and will not be helped by the recent loss of depth (Penny OUT and Lockett nursing a leg injury).

Philly follows up their OT win over the Giants with another very good matchup on paper against WAS (34% win; 8% pick). Outside the last 10 minutes of the game, the Eagles weren’t able to put up much offense. Haskins has been inconsistent in throwing to McLaurin, but the WR is their best chance of success as the Eagles have been tough on the running game. Vegas expects this to be a low scoring (40 points O/U) and fairly close game.

Tuesday Update: More details on Wed

CAR (30% Win; 4% Pick)

WAS (34% Win; 9% Pick)

Yellow Picks (low pick rate):

Wednesday Update:

ARI is an honorary yellow pick, but we’re waiting on Kyler Murray to wake up this offense. The offense has been serviceable for most of the season, but put up terrible performances against LAR and PIT.

LAC (44% Win; 15% Pick) hasn’t lost a game by more than one possession and is coming of a dominating performance against Jacksonville. Philip Rivers kept his turnovers in check and Ekeler put up over 100 yards of rushing and receiving EACH.

Vegas is expecting a high scoring game between DAL (48% win, 25% pick) and the Rams. Prescott has been excellent except for 2 road stinkers. This one is at home so we’re expecting a good showing.

Tuesday Update: More details on Wed

ARI (43% win; 20% pick)

LAC (44% win; 18% pick)

Blue Picks (medium pick rate):

Wednesday Update:

PIT (55% win; 33% pick) is going to have to grind it out against Buffalo, since both teams are relying heavily on the run and both have elite defenses. This is probably going to be a snoozer (36.5 O/U), but the Steelers could get a boost as Juju and Conner are expected to play this week.

TEN (58% win; 54% pick) has really turned around the offense with Tannehill at center. He’s playing well and reports are that the Titans are looking into Tannehill as their starter in the future. The Titans and Derrick Henry have steamrolled opponents in 3 straight weeks. They’ll be facing a reeling Texans team who didn’t know what hit them last week against Denver.

Tuesday Update: More details on Wed

PIT (55% win; 35% pick)

TEN (58% win; 48% pick)

Suggested Picks by Strategy

Our low, medium, and high risk strategy suggested picks! This gives you some suggestions of picks you can make depending on what strategy you’re looking to take. If you’re low in the standings and have nothing to lose, go with the higher risk. Feel free to substitute different money picks if you have a better feeling for another team. Hope these are helpful to you!

PointsBase (Lowest)Some RiskMed RiskHigh Risk
16BALBALBALBAL
15SFOSFOSFOSFO
14KCCKCCKCCKCC
13NEPPITLACWAS
12NOSNEPNEPNEP
11OAKNOSNOSNOS
10SEAOAKOAKOAK
9GBPSEASEASEA
8PHIGBPGBPGBP
7NYGPHIPHINYG
6TBBNYGNYGTBB
5TENTBBTBBTEN
4CLETENTENCLE
3MINCLECLEMIN
2PITMINPITPIT
1LARLARLARLAR

 

How did you do last week? Who are you going with this week? Got any questions? Post your question or comment below!