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Week 15 is over – 6 upsets including a huge Falcons win over SFO which completely upset the NFC playoff landscape and a Jaguars narrow win over OAK (20-16). The Jaguars had lost the previous 5 by a 23.4 average margin.

[NCAA College Football bowl game picks here]

[Diagnosis #3: Time to take (the right) risk]

Here’s a review of last week’s picks:

Green Picks (0-2) – Chris Carson beat up the bottom 5 rush defense of CAR this week. The Panthers were down 30-10 at one point and got two quick scores in the 4th, but Russell Wilson and Co. were able to pick up a few key first downs to run out the clock.

Philly entered this game without their top three receivers, but were still able to rack up the points behind rookie Miles Sanders (172 yards, 1 rec TD, 1 rush TD). That was enough offense to take out WAS and Dwayne Haskins who had his most efficient day as a pro (67.9% completion, 261 yds, 2 TDP, 0 INT).

Yellow Picks (1-1) – Minnesota wiped the floor with LAC even without Dalvin Cook for the majority of the game (and Mattison OUT). They consistently scored off short fields (SEVEN turnovers for the Chargers) with Mike Boone as their leading scorer (56 rush yds, 2 TDs). You know, THE Mike Boone.

We’re not sure what to make of this Rams team which feels like they either win or lose by 30 each week. This week, DAL ran all over them (263 yds, 3 TD and two 100+ yard rushers in Elliott and Pollard). The Rams also gave up a pass play to Tavon Austin that was so poorly defended, you couldn’t even see Rams defenders on the screen.

Blue Picks (0-2) –

It was supposed to be a grinder and the PIT-Buffalo game did not disappoint. It was a 10-10 into the middle of the 4th where a Josh Allen to Tyler Kroft TD was the difference maker. In a personal side note, I went up against Lamar Jackson, McCaffrey, and Kenyan Drake this week in the fantasy football playoffs and needed 63 points from Singletary to win. That did not happen.

The TEN-Houston game was a balanced game for both teams. It had a little of everything including a goal line interception returned for 86 yards by the Texans, a fake punt pass attempt, and a 57 yard run by a TE (Jonnu Smith). Kenny Stills, who hasn’t done much all year, put up two scores.

Season Record:
Green Picks (9-19)
Yellow Picks (12-17)
Blue Picks (13-13)
Week 15 Base Picks: 98 points
Season Total Base Picks: 1249 points

Here are the picks for Week 16:

Base Picks (what are base picks?): Updated Thursday 11:07 PM Pacific

Base PickPickSpreadWin Prob% PickedUnderdogWin Prob% Picked
No data found

Money Picks (What are money picks?):

Biggest movers and shakers (to be updated Friday):

Win% – NYG (3.6%) vs WAS

CIN (2.2%) vs MIA

GBP (1.2%) vs MIN; CLE (1.2%) vs BAL – keep an eye on the Bills game. If the Bills win on Saturday, then the Ravens may rest their starters as they’ll have the #1 seed locked up.

Pick Rate – PHI (-1%) vs DAL – not much movement since yesterday, probably because most people had their picks in already

Green Picks (lowest pick rate):

Friday Update:

No updates from yesterday. TEN and CHI are still the picks.

TEN (45% win, 9% pick) has a tough match up against the Saints at home. But Vegas expects this to be close to a coin flip whereas almost no one in the public believes in the Titans.

CHI (30% win, 5% pick) is a much longer upset pick against the Chiefs. It’s going to come down to Mitch, but he’s been serviceable against bottom tier defenses. Problem is Chiefs have been average on the year but very stiff against the pass recently.

Thursday Update: More details on Fri

TEN (44% win, 9% pick)

CHI (31% win, 5% pick)

Yellow Picks (low pick rate):

Friday Update:

CIN (52% win, 17% pick) is trending upwards and they’re fielding a competitive team with Dalton in recent weeks similar to the Dolphins on the other side of the field. These two teams are just playing for pride now.

Thursday Update: More details on Fri

CIN (50% win, 17% pick)

Blue Picks (medium pick rate):

Friday Update:

MIN (67% win, 62% pick) is continuing the trend of picking the Packers opponent each week. The Packers have not been playing as their record indicates. The Vikings would have likely been a heavier favorite but they are most likely out their top two running backs (Cook and Mattison).

Thursday Update: More details on Fri

MIN (68% win, 63% pick)

Suggested Picks by Strategy

Our low, medium, and high risk strategy suggested picks! This gives you some suggestions of picks you can make depending on what strategy you’re looking to take. If you’re low in the standings and have nothing to lose, go with the higher risk. Feel free to substitute different money picks if you have a better feeling for another team. Hope these are helpful to you!

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How did you do last week? Who are you going with this week? Got any questions? Post your question or comment below!