Happy Holidays everyone! Hope your picks brought you some early joy.

Week 16 is up and there were a couple shootouts. The week also included 7 upsets including SEA and PIT who were in must-win games against opponents that didn’t have much to play for.

[Diagnosis #3: Time to take (the right) risk]

Here’s a review of last week’s picks:

Blech, the best value picks did not hit this week.

Green Picks (0-2) –

Derrick Henry logged a full practice on Friday but was a Sunday inactive. The game was going to be tough sledding for TEN, but Dion Lewis filled in admirably while Dalyn Dawkins was a definite downgrade (9 for 24 yards). The Titans critical 4th quarter drive was one play. Down 3 and starting at their own 38, Tannehill threw a 23 yard pass to Kalif Raymond. Raymond was knocked out cold by the Saint’s Gardner-Johnson and recovered the resulting fumble. The Saints scored on the next drive and never looked back.

CHI was the tough one to highlight because our guts said no, but the numbers looked pretty good (30% win and 5% pick). The Chiefs defense continued their hot streak against opposing passing attacks as Trubisky was 18 for 34 and 157 yards with no TDs. Mahomes and crew didn’t have to do much and killed the clock with two long scoring drives in the fourth.

Yellow Picks (0-1) – Both CIN and Miami had been playing much better in recent weeks and smashed the Over/Under of 46.5 by putting up 73 total points in this game. This was the tale of three halves. Miami got the early jump going up 21-6 in the first half. In the second half, there was only one punt, and Dalton caught fire with 4 touchdown passes. In OT, both teams cooled off (1 first down followed by 4 straight 3 and outs), but Miami put together a drive to win with a FG.
Blue Picks (0-1) – Green Bay was coming off two very close wins at home against Washington and Chicago and was getting their first major test since getting destroyed against San Francisco. Outside of some early turnovers the Packers had control over the whole game in MIN. They rolled the Vikings with consistent pressure (5 sacks) and an outstanding performance by Aaron Jones (160 yards, 2 TDs).
Season Record:
Green Picks (9-21)
Yellow Picks (12-18)
Blue Picks (13-14)
Week 16 Base Picks: 89 points
Season Total Base Picks: 1338 points

 

Give us some feedback for 2019! What would you like us to keep doing or start doing?
88 votes · 195 answers
SubmitResults

Here are the picks for Week 17:

If you’re behind by a large margin going into this last week, you’re in luck as there is a ton of value to be had this week. Whether it’s people too busy drinking eggnog or relying on the big names of teams (even though many are locked into playoff seeding), the pick chart is a little crazy this week.

Base Picks (what are base picks?): Updated Saturday 1:59 PM Pacific

Base PickPickSpreadWin Prob% PickedUnderdogWin Prob% Picked
16NEP16.592%97%MIA8%3%
15NOS13.588%97%@CAR12%3%
14GBP12.587%97%@DET13%3%
13DAL12.085%94%WAS15%6%
12KCC9.079%98%LAC21%2%
11LAR6.571%89%ARI29%11%
10TEN6.069%30%@HOU31%70%
9IND5.568%90%@JAC32%10%
8PHI3.564%87%@NYG36%13%
7SFO3.561%47%@SEA39%53%
6DEN3.561%64%OAK39%36%
5CHI3.561%16%@MIN39%84%
4CLE3.058%87%@CIN42%13%
3PIT2.054%24%@BAL46%76%
2BUF1.052%91%NYJ48%9%
1ATL0.050%60%@TBB50%40%

Money Picks (What are money picks?):

Biggest movers and shakers (to be updated Saturday):

Win%

CHI (13.6%) vs MIN – MIN has nothing to play for as they’re locked into the 6th seed

LAR (8.5%) vs ARI

TEN (6.5%) vs HOU

IND (5.1%) vs JAC

GBP (2.7%) vs DET

DAL (2.4%) vs WAS

Pick Rate

HOU (-5%) vs TEN

BAL (-3%) vs PIT

ATL (-2%) vs TBB

BUF/MIN/CLE/OAK/PHI/SEA (-1%) vs NYJ/CHI/CIN/DEN/NYG/SFO

Green Picks (lowest pick rate):

Saturday Update:

NYJ (48% win, 9% pick) – Some insane value here as this is a coin flip, but only 9% are picking NYJ to win. Buffalo is locked into the #5 seed for the playoffs and should rest their starters. That being said, Bills Coach McDermott is putting the starters out there including QB Josh Allen. It’s hard to imagine the starters playing the entire game though.

Wednesday Update: More details on Sat

NYJ (47% win, 8% pick)

Yellow Picks (low pick rate):

Saturday Update:

CHI (61% win, 16% pick) – CHI is playing against the Vikings, who are locked into their playoff seeding and will be resting players including Cousins, Cook, and Diggs.

PIT (54% win, 24% pick) – Kind of a broken record here. PIT will be up against the Ravens, who are locked into the #1 seed and will be resting players including Lamar Jackson.

Wednesday Update: More details on Sat

These are probably a little wonky since it’s early in the week, it’s the holidays, and many people haven’t set their lineups yet.

TEN (63% win, 25% pick)

PIT (54% win, 21% pick) – Baltimore will be resting key starters like Lamar Jackson

CHI (48% win, 14% pick)

Blue Picks (medium pick rate):

Saturday Update:

TEN (69% win, 30% pick) needs to win to ensure a playoff birth. Their opponent, the Texans, are locked into a home Wild Card game. Similar to the Bills situation, they have a coach that wants to play his players instead of resting them. However, Watson is dealing with a back injury. Watson said on Thursday that he was playing, but it should only be for a few series.

SFO (61% win, 47% pick) is a blue pick based on the numbers, but we would shy away from this matchup since there are better value picks out there this week. The Niners take on the Seahawks in a critical game where the winner will get at least a home playoff game and possibly a first round bye. Divisional games have a tendency to be the grind-it-out type games, but this could be a high scoring affair with the Niners giving up over 35 points per game over the last 3.

Wednesday Update: More details on Sat

SFO (62% win, 46% pick)

Suggested Picks by Strategy

Our low, medium, and high risk strategy suggested picks! This gives you some suggestions of picks you can make depending on what strategy you’re looking to take. If you’re low in the standings and have nothing to lose, go with the higher risk. Feel free to substitute different money picks if you have a better feeling for another team. Hope these are helpful to you!

We put in more picks this week since the low picked teams carry less risk this week. We’re also spreading out some risk by having multiple picks only bumped up to the 12 spot. Some Risk (42% chance on both hitting). Med Risk (33% chance on both hitting). High Risk (20% on all three hitting).

PointsBase (Lowest)Some RiskMed RiskHigh Risk
16NEPNEPNEPNEP
15NOSNOSNOSNOS
14GBPGBPGBPGBP
13DALDALDALDAL
12KCCTENTENTEN
11LARCHINYJCHI
10TENKCCKCCNYJ
9INDLARLARKCC
8PHIINDINDLAR
7SFOPHIPHIIND
6DENSFOSFOPHI
5CHIDENDENSFO
4CLECLECHIDEN
3PITPITCLECLE
2BUFBUFPITPIT
1ATLATLATLATL

 

How did you do last week? Who are you going with this week? Got any questions? Post your question or comment below!