Wild Card Weekend!!!!!!
Just incredible. I can’t remember another year where every single wild card game came down to one possession and the final drive mattering. Let’s just hope we get a couple good games in the divisional round as we could be facing down quite a few blowouts.
Here’s a review of last week’s picks:
PHI, which was already depleted of many of their starters, lost Wentz after two drives in. From that point on, the Eagles could only muster up a few field goals and lost 17-9.
Buffalo jumped all over HOU early with some razzle dazzle and a John Brown throw for a Josh Allen TD reception. But after going up 16-0, the Bills started falling apart. Watson worked his magic avoiding two unblocked defenders in the waning moments of the game to get the Texans into FG range and win the game.
Value Picks Season Record (Regular Season)
Here are the picks for the Divisional Round:
Base Picks (what are base picks?): Updated Friday 12:53 AM Pacific
|Base Pick||Pick||Spread||Win Prob||% Picked||Underdog||Win Prob||% Picked|
Money Picks (What are money picks?):
Most players are picking the favorites which is not surprising given the huge point spreads.
Strategy for Playoffs (1-11 points) – Divisional Round
11 – ten @ BAL divisional game (-9.5) – This one seems a little scarier than the KCC matchup since the Titans have proven to be a very balanced team. That being said, Vegas still has the moneyline slightly more in favor for BAL.
10 – hou @ KCC divisional game (-9.5) – KCC should be able to easily handle the Texans as their pass defense has been playing very well and the offense is miles ahead of Buffalo’s.
9 (0 points) – min @ NOS wild card (-7.5) – Welp, we did a decent job predicting how the point spreads would net out for the base strategy. Unfortunately, the Vikings pull off a massive upset.
8 – min @ SFO divisional game (-7.0) – Because of the upset, this is a huge spread. Bumped up SFO to this spot.
7 (0 points) – ten @ NEP wild card (-5.0) – Another upset, but not nearly as surprising as the Vikings win. The Titans had been playing very well and the Patriots were going in the opposite direction.
6 – NFC conference championship – bumped up from spot 1. This should be a big spread if SFO wins.
5 – Super Bowl (favorite if you’re up, underdog if you need to make up points)
4 (4 points) – buf @ HOU wild card (-2.5) – The Texans narrowly escaped this one, but we’ll take the win.
3 – sea @ GBP (-3.5) divisional game – As bad as the Packers have looked, they’re relatively healthy and should be able to dispatch a beat up Seahawks team.
2 (2 points) – SEA @ phi wild card (-1.5) – A hard game to watch if you were on the Eagles side, but Seattle takes down Wentz and the game.
1 – AFC Championship game – Expecting a close game if it comes down to BAL/KCC.