Hey everyone, just a brief recap of Week 1:

We hit on two picks – Tennessee and Buffalo!

Base picks would have scored 109.

Here are the picks for Week 2:

Base Picks (what are base picks?): Updated Wednesday 9:16 PM Pacific

Base PickPickSpreadWin Prob% PickedAvg ConfUnderdogWin Prob% PickedAvg Conf
16NEP19.095%99%13.7@MIA5%1%5.8
15BAL13.087%98%11.6ARI13%2%4.7
14HOU9.580%97%9.9JAC20%3%4.9
13KCC7.078%96%10.7@OAK22%4%4.7
12CAR7.073%98%9.9TBB27%2%4.2
11DAL5.568%96%9.9@WAS32%4%4.1
10PIT4.065%61%5.3SEA35%39%4.7
9TEN4.063%88%7.5IND37%12%4.1
8CHI2.560%81%6.6@DEN40%19%4.4
7CLE2.559%75%5.6@NYJ41%25%4.1
6GBP3.059%61%5.0MIN41%39%4.3
5LAC2.559%89%7.9@DET41%11%3.8
4LAR2.556%63%4.6NOS44%37%4.2
3PHI2.056%77%6.2@ATL44%23%4.2
2BUF1.556%41%4.5@NYG44%59%4.7
1CIN1.553%52%4.1SFO47%48%4.2

Money Picks (What are money picks?):

Green Picks: Washington has a 32% win probability with only 4% picked. This has above average risk and reward.

Yellow Picks: Detroit has very low pick rate of 11% with 41% win probability. Atlanta has a much higher pick rate at 23% with a slightly higher win probability of 44%.

Blue Picks: We have two ends of the spectrum on blue picks. Lower risk/reward with Pittsburgh at 65% win probability but 61% pick rate. Higher risk/reward with Buffalo at 56% win probability but 41% pick rate.

 

As a review, start with the base picks listed above first. Then determine if you’re going to go lower risk or higher risk. You’d go lower risk if you have a smaller league and/or going for the highest points of the whole season, while you’re going for higher risk if you’ve got a bigger league and/or are going for the win for the week.

For higher risk/higher reward, you could put a Green Pick at 16 and then move all the base picks down. For a medium (but in this case still pretty good) risk, you could put a Yellow Pick at 16 and move everyone down. For a lower risk, you can move Blue Picks up and move everyone else down.  It’s probably better to go with lower risk in the beginning of the season to see if you can go for a weekly win AND a season win, but it’s up to you! Good luck this year!

If you have any questions, please post in the comments section below.

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