The divisional round is complete and we’re down to four teams – SFO, TEN, KCC, GBP.
SFO easily dispatched Minnesota as they crushed the soul of the Viking run game early (21 team rushing yards!) and consistently got pressure on Cousins (6 sacks).
The Titans kept to their blueprint of controlling the game with the run (217 rushing yards). BAL was able to put together drives, but was ultimately undone by three untimely turnovers and two turnovers on downs after failed 4th and short situations.
We were lucky to see at least two fairly entertaining games on Sunday. In the first one, KCC wiped out a 24-0 Houston lead in one quarter by scoring 4 TDs in the 2nd quarter! They went on to score touchdowns on 7 straight drives in what turned into a very exciting blowout game in the reverse direction.
The second one was the Blue pick below:
Here’s a review of last week’s picks:
GBP took a commanding 28-10 lead midway into the third. That’s when Russell Wilson started working his magic with his legs and arm (64 yards rushing, 277 yards passing). Packers fans were having flashbacks of the 2014 collapse, but Green Bay was able to hold onto the lead and finished off the game with a few critical first downs.
Value Picks Season Record (Regular Season)
Here are the picks for the Championship Round:
Base Picks (what are base picks?): Updated Friday 12:53 AM Pacific
|Base Pick||Pick||Spread||Win Prob||% Picked||Underdog||Win Prob||% Picked|
Money Picks (What are money picks?):
The picks aren’t very interesting this week in terms of value. If you’re up, you’ll want to stick with the favorites. If you’re down, you’ll need to rely on the upsets to pull it out. TEN is a slightly better upset pick than the Packers.
Strategy for Playoffs (1-11 points) – Conference Championships
11 (0 points) – ten @ BAL divisional game (-9.5) – The Titans dispatched the SuperBowl favorite Ravens and have the tools to beat the rest of the teams in the playoffs.
10 (10 points) – hou @ KCC divisional game (-9.5) – KCC went down 24-0, but woke up in the 2nd quarter, scored 7 straight TDs, and never looked back. Reminder of last year’s game against NE, but they ran out of time in that one.
9 (0 points) – min @ NOS wild card (-7.5) – Welp, we did a decent job predicting how the point spreads would net out for the base strategy. Unfortunately, the Vikings pull off a massive upset.
8 (8 points) – min @ SFO divisional game (-7.0) – SFO easily took out the Vikings
7 (0 points) – ten @ NEP wild card (-5.0) – Another upset, but not nearly as surprising as the Vikings win. The Titans had been playing very well and the Patriots were going in the opposite direction.
6 – gbp @ SFO – NFC Championship game (-7.5) – As expected, SFO is a huge favorite. Should be a closer game than the last game (37-8), but the Packers will need to find a way to make 3rd downs more manageable.
5 – ten @ KCC – AFC Championship game (-7.0) – Bumped up. As well as Tennessee is playing, they’re a huge underdog to KCC who woke from their slumber. The Chiefs can be run on though, so the Titans will have to keep it close so they can stick to Henry.
4 (4 points) – buf @ HOU wild card (-2.5) – The Texans narrowly escaped this one, but we’ll take the win.
3 – sea @ GBP (-3.5) divisional game – As bad as the Packers have looked, they’re relatively healthy and should be able to dispatch a beat up Seahawks team.
2 (2 points) – SEA @ phi wild card (-1.5) – A hard game to watch if you were on the Eagles side, but Seattle takes down Wentz and the game.
1 – Super Bowl (bumped down as we expect a smaller line than -7.0)