Hope everyone had a solid Week 2! Here’s a recap of how our picks performed:
Here are the picks for Week 3:
Base Picks (what are base picks?): Updated Wednesday 9:41 PM Pacific
|Base Pick||Pick||Spread||Win Prob||% Picked||Avg Conf||Underdog||Win Prob||% Picked||Avg Conf|
Money Picks (What are money picks?):
Wednesday Update – We’re pivoting off of Baltimore and Detroit as there are better options. CIN has held steady at 30% win probability and 8% picked. NOS is a new pick today. NOS pick rate has dropped 5% overnight as users do not trust a non-Brees QB at the helm. Vegas disagreed as the %win has stayed the same.
Both BAL and DET are riskier propositions this week with a 27% win probability and a 9% pick rate. The Detroit game is one to monitor as the line may shift in their direction due to the injuries on the Philly side (Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson projected to miss the next two games). CIN is a slightly less risky pick at 30% win probability and a 9% pick rate.
Wednesday Update – CLE is still a great pick at 38% win probability and a 10% pick rate. We pulled WAS as we believe there are better options on the board.
CLE is a great pick this week at 40% win probability and only a 9% pick rate. WAS is another possibility at 35% win probability and an 18% pick rate.
Wednesday Update – All signs point to Cam not playing this week. Because of that ARI suddenly is a favorite to win (55% win probability) without many supporters (57% picked). IND is still a blue pick with a 53% win probability and 30% pick rate.
IND is a solid favorite pick this week at 55% win probability and only a 30% pick rate. CAR would normally be a blue pick at 57% win probability and a 51% pick rate. However Cam Newton has been terrible (not running the ball) and he’s potentially going to take the game off to rest his foot. We’ll update the situation tomorrow, but assuming Cam is out, the line should shift to Arizona’s favor.
As a review, start with the base picks listed above first. Then determine if you’re going to go lower risk or higher risk. You’d go lower risk if you have a smaller league and/or going for the highest points of the whole season, while you’re going for higher risk if you’ve got a bigger league and/or are going for the win for the week.
For higher risk/higher reward, you could put a Green Pick at 16 and then move all the base picks down. For a medium (but in this case still pretty good) risk, you could put a Yellow Pick at 16 and move everyone down. For a lower risk, you can move Blue Picks up and move everyone else down. It’s probably better to go with lower risk in the beginning of the season to see if you can go for a weekly win AND a season win, but it’s up to you! Good luck this year!
If you have any questions, please post in the comments section below.
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