What a wild week 3! Here’s a recap of how our picks performed last week:

Green Picks (1-1) – Cincinnati surged in the second half but could not pull out the win at Buffalo. New Orleans was able to take care of business with Teddy Bridgewater at the helm and a whole team effort.
Yellow Pick (0-1) – Cleveland’s offensive woes continue as they fall to the LA Rams.
Blue Picks (1-1) – Arizona was blown out by Carolina who found new life behind center with Kyle Allen. Indy built a huge lead by halftime and held on to beat Atlanta.
Season Record:
Green High Risk Picks (2-3)
Yellow Medium Risk Picks (3-2)
Blue Low Risk Picks (2-4)
Week 3 Base Picks: 96 points
Season Total Base Picks: 301 points

Here are the picks for Week 4:

Base Picks (what are base picks?): Updated Wednesday 10:05 PM Pacific

Base PickPickSpreadWin Prob% PickedAvg ConfUnderdogWin Prob% PickedAvg Conf
15LAC15.089%98%11.2@MIA11%2%4.3
14LAR10.081%99%10.9TBB19%1%4.7
13NEP7.077%94%10.5@BUF23%6%3.1
12BAL7.075%92%8.1CLE25%8%3.5
11IND7.074%91%7.2OAK26%9%3.8
10KCC6.574%96%10.3@DET26%4%4.0
9SEA5.070%92%7.5@ARI30%8%3.4
8HOU4.567%93%7.4CAR33%7%3.9
7ATL4.066%89%6.1TEN34%11%3.6
6GBP4.066%92%7.6PHI34%8%3.5
5PIT4.066%82%5.2CIN34%18%3.5
4DEN3.564%55%3.9JAC36%45%3.7
3NYG3.059%82%4.7WAS41%18%3.6
2DAL2.559%72%5.3@NOS41%28%3.6
1CHI2.055%55%3.7MIN45%45%3.7

Money Picks (What are money picks?):

Biggest movers and shakers from Tuesday:

Since yesterday, the teams that got the biggest boost in Win Prob % in descending order: PHI, MIN, NEP.

The teams that dropped the most in Pick % in descending order: WAS, MIN, OAK, DEN, NOS

 

Green Picks (highest risk):

Wednesday Update – Picks remain the same as yesterday, but Vegas gives a slight boost in confidence to PHI (now at 34% win probability and still at 8% picked). CAR held steady at 33% win probability and a 7% pick rate.

Tuesday Update – This week, there are multiple teams with a 1 in 3 chance of winning and very low pick rates. PHI has a 32% win probability and 8% pick rate. Keep an eye on Alshon Jeffery, who should be coming back this week. CAR gets another start from Kyle Allen and has a 33% win probability and a 7% pick rate.

 

Yellow Picks (medium risk):

Wednesday Update – WAS is still the pick and the pick got better. No respect from the general public but more betting dollars are going Washington’s way. 41% win probability and 18% pick rate.

Tuesday Update – WAS is the pick at 40% win probability and 21% pick rate. They’ve gotten a bit of a boost since NYG’s Daniel Jones only has one game under his belt and Saquon Barkley is out.

 

Blue Picks (lowest risk):

Wednesday Update – Picks stayed the same, but it was a win-win for DEN with the win probability going up to 64% and the pick rate going down to 55%. Lose-lose for CHI as the win probability went down to 55% and the pick rate went up to 55%. CHI is barely meeting our requirements for a low risk pick.

Tuesday Update – In the battle of two teams struggling to put entire games together, CHI at home gets the nod with a 57% win probability and a 52% pick rate. We’re a little surprised at the DEN-JAC line, but “in Vegas we trust.” If the DEN line holds, it is a great pick at 63% win probability and a 57% pick rate.

 

How do I use the picks?

As a review, start with the base picks listed above first. Then determine if you’re going to go lower risk or higher risk. You’d go lower risk if you have a smaller league and/or going for the highest points of the whole season, while you’re going for higher risk if you’ve got a bigger league and/or are going for the win for the week.

For higher risk/higher reward, you could put a Green Pick at 16 and then move all the base picks down. For a medium (but in this case still pretty good) risk, you could put a Yellow Pick at 16 and move everyone down. For a lower risk, you can move Blue Picks up and move everyone else down.  It’s probably better to go with lower risk in the beginning of the season to see if you can go for a weekly win AND a season win, but it’s up to you! Good luck this year!

If you have any questions, please post in the comments section below.

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