Week 4 was the week of the Underdog (meaning a terrible week for base picks)! If you were able to go all-in on a few upsets and they hit, you probably had a very good week:

Green Picks (2-0!) – Philly dispatched Green Bay by running right through the defense all day. Kyle Allen led Carolina to yet another victory. Fun Kyle Allen stat – in the last 12 CAR games, the 3 that Kyle Allen started have been victories and the other 9 were losses (8 Cam Newton starts and 1 Taylor Heinicke start)

 

Yellow Pick (0-1) – Washington got walloped by NYG. Not only was there a late injury addition of rookie sensation Terry McLaurin, but the coaching staff threw Dwayne Haskins to the wolves midway through the game.

 

Blue Picks (1-1) – The terrifying Chicago defense is still single handedly winning games for them while Minnesota still has not figured out what to do with their passing game. Denver lost a close one as they kept Minshew magic in check, but could not stop the run.

 

Season Record:
Green High Risk Picks (4-3) – variance has swung in our favor on these typically less than 1 in 3 shots
Yellow Medium Risk Picks (3-3) – still pretty good as these are typically a little more than a 1 in 3 shot
Blue Low Risk Picks (3-5) – Lady Luck not working with us on these better than coin flip picks

 

Week 4 Base Picks: 56 points
Season Total Base Picks: 357 points

 

Here are the picks for Week 5:

Base Picks (what are base picks?): Updated Wednesday 10:36 PM Pacific

Base PickPickSpreadWin Prob% PickedAvg ConfUnderdogWin Prob% PickedAvg Conf
15NEP15.088%99%12.9@WAS12%1%5.9
14PHI13.586%99%11.2NYJ14%1%4.8
13KCC11.084%99%11.4IND16%1%4.8
12LAC6.572%96%9.5DEN28%4%4.1
11CHI5.068%85%7.9@OAK32%15%3.9
10MIN5.068%78%7.5@NYG32%22%4.1
9HOU5.067%92%7.6ATL33%8%4.3
8DAL3.564%67%5.7GBP36%33%4.4
7SFO3.563%64%5.9CLE37%36%4.8
6CAR3.563%63%5.4JAC37%37%4.4
5BAL3.562%80%7.1@PIT38%20%4.2
4CIN3.562%58%4.3ARI38%42%3.5
3NOS3.561%85%7.4TBB39%15%4.0
2TEN3.059%51%4.2BUF41%49%4.3
1SEA2.054%55%3.5LAR46%45%4.0

Money Picks (What are money picks?):

Biggest movers and shakers (Tuesday to Wednesday):

Biggest increases in % win in decreasing order: TBB vs NOS, CHI vs OAK

Biggest decreases in % picked in increasing order: CIN vs ARI, NYG vs MIN, OAK vs CHI

Green Picks (highest risk):

Wednesday Update – ATL is still the pick. Even less people are picking them today – 33% win probability and 8% pick rate. A slightly riskier pick would be DEN going up against the Chargers. Denver is 0-4 but 3 out of 4 have been close contests. DEN has a 28% win prob and only a 4% pick rate.

Tuesday Update – Atlanta is the pick with a 33% win probability and only a 9% pick rate.

Yellow Picks (medium risk):

Wednesday Update – TBB pick is even better now at 39% win probability and 15% pick rate. PIT is the same at 38% win probability and 20% pick rate.

Tuesday Update – Vegas likes the new high flying Bucs and the experimental Wildcat Steelers odds of success more than the general public. TBB has a 37% win probability with a 15% pick rate. PIT has a 38% win probability with a 20% pick rate.

Blue Picks (lowest risk):

Wednesday Update – A 4% shift away from CIN makes them an attractive Blue Pick at 62% win probability and 58% pick rate. They’re in the “battle of who can be less bad” with Arizona. TEN is still a good pick at 59% win probability and 50% pick rate.

Tuesday Update – TEN is a moderate favorite against the Josh Allen-less Bills next week in what most likely will be a defensive struggle. Their win probability is 59% with only 50% pick rate.

How do I use the picks?

As a review, start with the base picks listed above first. Then determine if you’re going to go lower risk or higher risk. You’d go lower risk if you have a smaller league and/or going for the highest points of the whole season, while you’re going for higher risk if you’ve got a bigger league and/or are going for the win for the week.

For higher risk/higher reward, you could put a Green Pick at 16 and then move all the base picks down. For a medium (but in this case still pretty good) risk, you could put a Yellow Pick at 16 and move everyone down. For a lower risk, you can move Blue Picks up and move everyone else down.  It’s probably better to go with lower risk in the beginning of the season to see if you can go for a weekly win AND a season win, but it’s up to you! Good luck this year!

If you have any questions, please post in the comments section below.