Week 5 is in the books and the long shots keep rolling!:

Green Picks (1-1) – ATL was blown out by Houston who was led by Deshaun Watson’s 5 touchdown day. DEN pulls off a huge upset as their defense held the Chargers offense to less than 40 yards rushing. This after giving up 269 rushing yards to the Jaguars the week before.
Yellow Picks (0-2) – PIT lost a close one to Baltimore in overtime. TBB was outplayed for most of the game and could not catch up to New Orleans at the end.
Blue Picks (0-2) – In the battle of winless teams, CIN loses again, this time to Arizona. TEN loses in a defensive battle against Buffalo.
Season Record:
Green High Risk Picks (5-4)
Yellow Medium Risk Picks (3-5)
Blue Low Risk Picks (3-7)
Week 5 Base Picks: 70 points
Season Total Base Picks: 427 points

Here are the picks for Week 6:

Base Picks (what are base picks?): Updated Wednesday 6:11 PM Pacific

Base PickPickSpreadWin Prob% PickedUnderdogWin Prob% Picked
14NEP17.091%99%NYG9%1%
13BAL11.083%99%CIN17%1%
12DAL7.075%98%@NYJ25%2%
11LAC6.573%91%PIT27%9%
10GBP4.567%92%DET33%8%
9KCC4.067%90%HOU33%10%
8WAS3.562%68%@MIA38%32%
7LAR3.562%69%SFO38%31%
6MIN3.060%58%PHI40%42%
5ATL3.057%72%@ARI43%28%
4DEN2.056%69%TEN44%31%
3CAR2.055%44%@TBB45%56%
2SEA1.553%86%@CLE47%14%
1JAC1.553%14%NOS47%86%

Money Picks (What are money picks?):

Biggest movers and shakers (Updated Wednesday):

Biggest increase in win % from Tuesday in decreasing order: SFO (2.4%), NEP (1.5%), NYJ (1.0%)

Biggest decrease in pick % from Tuesday in increasing order: LAR (-6.0%!), CLE (-5.0%!!), TBB (-3.0%), MIA (-3.0%)

Green Picks (highest risk):

NYJ, PIT, DET, and HOU would all qualify as good value green picks this week, but we’re just highlighting the two “best bang for your buck” options. The first pick is DET at 33% win percentage at 8% picked. The higher risk pick would be NYJ at 25% win percentage at only 2% picked.

Tuesday Update – DET is our lone green pick so far at 33% win percentage and 9% picked. The NYJ is close and worth keeping an eye on the Vegas line during the week as Darnold has been cleared to play.

Yellow Picks (medium risk):

The CLE game is at an insane value. It is still at close to a coin flip (47% win percentage), but the percent picked went down to 14%!! No love for the Browns after the Monday Night beatdown, but the 49ers are a very good team this year.

Addendum: JAC is an even insaner value. The Jaguars are favored but only 14% picked. Minshew Mania!

Tuesday Update – HOU at 33% win percentage and 11% picked (this is right on the cusp, which is why it’s similar to the DET pick). The CLE pick is insanely good value at close to 50/50 odds (47% win percentage) and only 19% picked. We’ll keep an eye on SFO, which meet the criteria of a medium risk pick, but has worse win prob and % picked than CLE.

Blue Picks (lowest risk):

MIN is still the pick at 60% win percentage and 58% picked. A slightly riskier option would be CAR at 55% win percentage but only 44% picked.

Tuesday Update – MIN is the only blue pick for Tuesday at 59% win percentage and 57% picked.

How do I use the picks?

As a review, start with the base picks listed above first. Then determine if you’re going to go lower risk or higher risk. You’d go lower risk if you have a smaller league and/or going for the highest points of the whole season, while you’re going for higher risk if you’ve got a bigger league and/or are going for the win for the week.

For higher risk/higher reward, you could put a Green Pick at 16 and then move all the base picks down. For a medium (but in this case still pretty good) risk, you could put a Yellow Pick at 16 and move everyone down. For a lower risk, you can move Blue Picks up and move everyone else down.  It’s probably better to go with lower risk in the beginning of the season to see if you can go for a weekly win AND a season win, but it’s up to you! Good luck this year!

If you have any questions, please post in the comments section below.