Week 6 is done and it was another good week for the underdogs. Hope you were able to take some shots and land on the lower picked teams. Here’s a summary of last week’s picks:
Green Picks (1-1) – NYJ took advantage of a slow Dallas start and was able to hang onto the lead despite a big second half comeback attempt by the Cowboys. DET lost a very close game to Green Bay and probably would have won if not for some blown calls at the end of the game.
Our honorary picks of HOU and PIT also were able to pull off upsets. PIT won through controlling the game with defense and HOU was able to keep pace with the Chiefs on offense.
Yellow Picks (0-2) – We were really pulling for these close to 50/50 picks, but unfortunately, both picks lost. JAC lost in a defensive battle against New Orleans. CLE kept it close, but could not overcome 4 turnovers and a blocked punt.
Blue Picks (2-0) – MIN continued the passing onslaught on Philly’s defense and blew them out. CAR cruised to a win behind 5 Jameis Winston interceptions.
Green Picks (6-5)
Yellow Picks (3-7)
Blue Picks (5-7)
Week 6 Base Picks: 60 points
Season Total Base Picks: 487 points
Here are the picks for Week 7:
Base Picks (what are base picks?): Updated Thursday 12:30 AM Pacific
Money Picks (What are money picks?):
Biggest movers and shakers:
Win Probability: MIN (6.7%), OAK (3.2%), DEN (3.0%)
MIN went from an underdog to a favorite!
Pick Percentage: IND (-3.0%), MIN (-2.0%), CIN (-2.0%)
Green Picks (lowest pick rate):
OAK and DEN both got a boost in confidence from Vegas. OAK is now at 31% win% and 6% pick rate. DEN is at 40% win with 9% pick rate.
The DEN line has a chance for some movement as the Chiefs have some key linemen that are currently not practicing.
We’ve also renamed the green picks from “riskiest” to “lowest pick rate” since it highlights the most contrarian picks at the best value. As you can see this week, the DEN pick is actually less risky than two of the Yellow picks.
Tuesday Update: DEN will look to hand Kansas City their third straight loss on short prep week (Thursday game). They’re at 37% win with 10% pick rate. A riskier pick is OAK at 28% win with 6% pick rate against Green Bay.
Yellow Picks (low pick rate):
Not much movement here, but less people are picking CIN.
CIN – 36% win with 13% pick rate, BAL 38% win with 14% pick rate, ATL 40% win with 12% pick rate.
Keep an eye on Jalen Ramsey as it is uncertain if he will be ready to suit up for the Rams against ATL on Sunday.
Tuesday Update: Three yellow picks for the day that aren’t functionally that different than the Green DEN pick: CIN at 38% win with 15% pick rate, BAL at 38% win with 15% pick rate, and ATL at 41% win with 12% pick rate.
Blue Picks (medium pick rate):
CHI is still a good pick at 61% win and 48% pick rate. TEN sneaks in today as a more contrarian blue pick at 55% win and 35% pick rate.
Tuesday Update: CHI is decent favorite against New Orleans at 63% win and 49% pick rate
How do I use the picks?
As a review, start with the base picks listed above first. Then determine if you’re going to go lower risk or higher risk. You’d go lower risk if you have a smaller league and/or going for the highest points of the whole season, while you’re going for higher risk if you’ve got a bigger league and/or are going for the win for the week.
For higher risk/higher reward, you could put a Green Pick at 16 and then move all the base picks down. For a medium (but in this case still pretty good) risk, you could put a Yellow Pick at 16 and move everyone down. For a lower risk, you can move Blue Picks up and move everyone else down. It’s probably better to go with lower risk in the beginning of the season to see if you can go for a weekly win AND a season win, but it’s up to you! Good luck this year!
If you have any questions, please post in the comments section below.