Week 7 was a great week for favorites and the base picks. Only 3 upsets and no major upsets (Seattle was the highest upset at only 58.7% win).
[7 weeks in and doing great/panicking. What do I do now?]
Here’s a review of last week’s picks:
Green Picks (0-2) – OAK could not keep pace with the Packers and Aaron Rodgers’ 6 TD day (5 passing, 1 rushing). OAK had some opportunities to keep it competitive but could not convert on some critical drives. DEN was completely outmatched even with Mahomes out for more than a half. The Chiefs defense stepped up as DEN seemed to be facing 3rd and long for the entire game.
Yellow Picks (1-2) – ATL was completely outclassed by the Rams. CIN played a tough game against Jacksonville, but ultimately was done in by turnovers (a lost fumble and 3 second half picks). BAL finished the upset with the help of two defensive scores and long drives at the end of the game to keep Russell Wilson off the field.
Blue Picks (1-1) – TEN won a close one against the Chargers which came down to the last play of the game (a Gordon fumble). The final score of the CHI game did not reflect how big of a blowout this game was. CHI was down 26 before scoring two late touchdowns in garbage time.
Green Picks (6-7)
Yellow Picks (4-9)
Blue Picks (6-8)
Week 7 Base Picks: 83 points!
Season Total Base Picks: 570 points
Here are the picks for Week 8:
Base Picks (what are base picks?): Updated Wednesday 10:54 PM Pacific
Money Picks (What are money picks?):
Biggest movers and shakers (updated Wednesday):
Win Probability: KCC (3.4%), MIN/JAC/HOU (1.9%), DEN (1.8%)
Pick Percentage: NYJ (-4%), KCC (-3%)
Green Picks (lowest pick rate):
It’s take your pick of green picks this week.
DEN is a better pick today at 31% win and 3% pick rate.
ATL (29% win and 4% pick rate) leapfrogged the NYG pick, which held steady at 27% and 4% pick rate.
OAK is still and honorary Green Pick. NYJ joins the huge list of decent options with very low pick rates.
Tuesday Update: Four teams would qualify as green picks this week, but we highlight two this week.
NYG, who just got run over by Chase Edmonds, gets to face a weaker running team in the Kerryon Johnson-less Lions. They’re at 27% win and 4% pick rate.
DEN will travel to Indy and take on a solid Colts team. They’re currently at 29% win and a 4% pick rate.
OAK hangs on another week as an honorary Green Pick as the public has very little confidence in them, but they have a decent chance at winning. They’re at 29% win and at 9% pick rate.
The other honorary pick is ATL. ATL is coming off a rough game against the Rams get to stay at home to take on the reeling Seahawks. Keep an eye on the win % as Matt Ryan is not expected to play and the Falcons just traded away Mohamed Sanu, who could consistently move the chains. They’re at 29% win and only a 5% pick rate.
Yellow Picks (low pick rate):
Wednesday Update: With the movements from yesterday, we have two real yellow picks- LAC at 35% win and 20% pick rate.
KCC leapfrog’s LAC at 37% win and 19% pick rate. Seems like every week the public has more confidence in the Packers than Vegas does.
Tuesday Update: No teams meet our criteria for a yellow pick this week.
The closest one is LAC taking on the Bears. Both teams still trying to figure things out, especially on offense. LAC is losers of three straight and the Bears are losers of two straight. LAC is a 34% win team with a 19% pick rate.
Blue Picks (medium pick rate):
Wednesday Update: TEN is still the closest thing we have for a Blue Pick this week at 57% win and 65% pick rate.
Tuesday Update: No teams meet our criteria for a blue pick this week.
The closest team is TEN, who has some new life with Tannehill under center. They are at 57% win and 64% pick rate.
Suggested Picks by Strategy
Here is the debut of the most popular request from our users: our low, medium, and high risk strategy suggested picks! This gives you some suggestions of picks you can make depending on what strategy you’re looking to take. If you’re low in the standings and have nothing to lose, go with the higher risk. Feel free to substitute different money picks if you have a better feeling for another team. Hope these are helpful to you!
How do I use the picks?
As a review, start with the base picks listed above first. Then determine if you’re going to go lower risk or higher risk. You’d go lower risk if you have a smaller league and/or going for the highest points of the whole season, while you’re going for higher risk if you’ve got a bigger league and/or are going for the win for the week.
For higher risk/higher reward, you could put a Green Pick high or at the highest (16 points if there are no bye weeks) and then move all the base picks down. For a medium (but in this case still pretty good) risk, you could put a Yellow Pick high and move everyone down. For a lower risk, you can move Blue Picks up and move everyone else down. It’s probably better to go with lower risk in the beginning of the season to see if you can go for a weekly win AND a season win, but it’s up to you! Good luck this year!
If you have any questions, please post in the comments section below.