Week 8 is in the books! Aside from 2 small upsets, the picks were all chalk. 2 good weeks in a row for base picks.

[How to evaluate your picks from previous week]

Here’s a review of last week’s picks:

Green Picks (0-2) – Hopefully, you were able to make the pivot off of ATL on Saturday when Matt Ryan was ruled out. ATL actually made a game of it with Matt Schaub, but their comeback attempt came up short. DEN lost a close defensive battle to the Colts.
Yellow Picks (1-1) – LAC held on to the win with the help of some questionable end of game play calling from the Bears’ coach Matt Nagy. KCC was able to put up points with backup QB Matt Moore, but could not keep up at the end.
Blue Picks (1-0) – TEN was able to build an early lead and then mount a successful comeback on the back of turnover machine Jameis Winston (2 INT, 2 Fumbles lost)
Season Record:
Green Picks (6-9)
Yellow Picks (5-10)
Blue Picks (7-8)
Week 8 Base Picks: 115 points!!
Season Total Base Picks: 685 points

Here are the picks for Week 9:

Base Picks (what are base picks?): Updated Thursday 12:52 AM Pacific

Base PickPickSpreadWin Prob% PickedAvg ConfUnderdogWin Prob% PickedAvg Conf
14SFO10.581%97%11.0@ARI19%3%3.5
13BUF9.580%99%9.3WAS20%1%3.7
12DAL7.575%96%8.8@NYG25%4%4.0
11SEA6.070%99%9.9TBB30%1%3.9
10PHI4.568%90%6.4CHI32%10%3.3
9CLE3.564%62%4.4@DEN36%38%3.7
8CAR3.563%88%6.1TEN37%12%3.6
7GBP3.563%95%8.8@LAC37%5%3.9
6NEP3.062%81%7.7@BAL38%19%3.3
5NYJ3.060%74%4.8@MIA40%26%2.6
4OAK2.055%43%3.8DET45%57%4.2
3KCC2.054%51%3.9MIN46%49%3.6
2HOU1.553%76%5.5@JAC47%24%3.4
1IND1.052%77%5.1@PIT48%23%4.0

Money Picks (What are money picks?):

Biggest movers and shakers (updated Wednesday):

Win% –

KCC +11.3%; TEN + 2.4%; CLE + 2.2%; SFO 1.8%

Mahomes looking like he has a chance to play. Monitor this situation as Vegas will have the Vikings as a slight favorite if Mahomes is out.

Pick Rate –

DEN -7%; KCC -3%; PIT -3%; BAL -2%; NYJ -2%

Vegas odds didn’t change much, but public perception is all out on Denver as Brandon Allen makes his first start for the Broncos.

Green Picks (lowest pick rate):

Wednesday Update: CHI (32 win%/10% pick rate) and LAC (37 win%/5% pick rate) are still the picks. Interesting to see Packers opponents often making the money picks as GB tends to be a moderate favorite but with very high pick rates.

Tuesday Update: More details on Wed

CHI – 32% win; 10% pick rate

LAC – 37% win; 6% pick rate

Yellow Picks (low pick rate):

Wednesday Update:

The new pick rates have allowed us to pivot off of the winless Dolphins and on to PIT.

PIT is almost a coin flip at 48 win% but only 23% pick rate.

JAC is still a good pick (and almost a coin flip) at 47 win% and 24% pick rate.

Tuesday Update: More details on Wed

MIA – 41% win; 25% pick rate

JAC – 46% win; 25% pick rate

Blue Picks (medium pick rate):

Wednesday Update: Minnesota is no longer a favorite, so we’ve switched over to OAK who is playing at home against Detroit. They’re at 55 win% with 43% pick rate.

Keeping CLE (64 win%/62% pick rate) on the board even though their pick rate has been skyrocketing.

Tuesday Update: More details on Wed

MIN – 57% win; 46% pick rate

CLE – 62% win; 55% pick rate

Suggested Picks by Strategy

Our low, medium, and high risk strategy suggested picks! This gives you some suggestions of picks you can make depending on what strategy you’re looking to take. If you’re low in the standings and have nothing to lose, go with the higher risk. Feel free to substitute different money picks if you have a better feeling for another team. Hope these are helpful to you!

PointsBase (Lowest)Some RiskMed RiskHigh Risk
14SFOSFOSFOSFO
13BUFBUFBUFBUF
12DALOAKPITLAC
11SEADALDALDAL
10PHISEASEASEA
9CLEPHIPHIPHI
8CARCLECLECLE
7GBPCARCARCAR
6NEPGBPGBPNEP
5NYJNEPNEPNYJ
4OAKNYJNYJOAK
3KCCKCCOAKKCC
2HOUHOUKCCHOU
1INDINDHOUIND

 

How do I use the picks?

As a review, start with the base picks listed above first. Then determine if you’re going to go lower risk or higher risk. You’d go lower risk if you have a smaller league and/or going for the highest points of the whole season, while you’re going for higher risk if you’ve got a bigger league and/or are going for the win for the week.

For higher risk/higher reward, you could put a Green Pick high or at the highest (16 points if there are no bye weeks) and then move all the base picks down. For a medium (but in this case still pretty good) risk, you could put a Yellow Pick high and move everyone down. For a lower risk, you can move Blue Picks up and move everyone else down. It’s probably better to go with lower risk in the beginning of the season to see if you can go for a weekly win AND a season win, but it’s up to you! Good luck this year!

If you have any questions, please post in the comments section below.