Here is a preview with the PREMIUM PICKS, which come with the Premium Membership. They show what teams others are picking (% picked), what their average confidence value is (avg confidence) so you can make upset picks. It also shows the predicted score for those who use it as a tiebreaker. We also will be picking the best of the upset picks in green, yellow, and blue picks with the Premium Membership, along with the risk/picks chart below.
This week’s picks are the following:
High Risk Pick Games (Green Picks): Bills vs. Jets AND/OR Eagles vs. Washington Football Team
Saturday 9/12/20 Update: Washington Football team % chance of winning increased to 30% flat, yet the % picked stayed at 5%, which means they are still a great value (green) pick. While New York Jets % chance of winning dropped by 1% to 26% but the % picked stayed at 3%, which means they are also still good high risk/high reward (green) pick for this week.
Thursday 9/10/20 Update: Washington Football Team (% pick dropped from 6% to 5%), which makes it an even better value play if they end up winning vs the Eagles.
Picks: New York Jets and Washington Football Team
Both the Jets and Washington team have close to 30% of winning probability, but the % of people picking them are less than 7% (3% and 6% respectively), which makes them this week’s best high-risk high rewards play.
Other possible options for high-risk high reward (which are close) are the 49ers vs. Cardinals (Cardinals – 26%-win probability, 6% picked AZ), and Steelers vs. Giants (Giants – 31%-win probability, 9% picked NY). The winning probability and the % picked are close enough where choosing them may also be viable options.
Medium Risk Pick Games (Yellow Picks): Broncos vs. Titans AND/OR Seahawks vs. Falcons
Saturday 9/12/20 Update: Both Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcon’s % of winning dropped from close to 50% to under 45%. Their % of winning drop coincide with the drop in % of pick, which also decreased to under 25%. While their selections are not as good as before, they are still a decent (medium risks) value (yellow) picks for this week.
Picks: Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons
Both Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons are the medium risk picks for this week, both teams have either close to or at 50% of winning probability. Both teams have the % of being picked at the range of 20-29%, which offers good values because not many people will put confidence points in these two matchups.
Low Risk Pick Game (Blue Pick): None
Saturday 9/12/20 Update: Detroit Lions % of winning dropped from 60% to 58% (likely due to WR1 Kenny Golladay’s unavailability for week1). This makes Detroit NO LONGER an option for our blue pick this week (the reduction in % of winning, plus the increase in % of people who are picking them)
Thursday 9/10/20 Update: Detroit Lions (% pick rose from 59% to 62%). It is still an option, but the % increase definitely makes it less attractive as a low risk value play. There are no other decent alternatives as Raiders % pick also increased by 1% to 68%.
Pick: Detroit Lions.
Detroit is the favored at 60%. However, the % of people picking them is the lowest among the favored teams – at less than 60%, which makes it a good low risk value play for week 1.
Las Vegas Raiders is the next closest one at 63%-win probability, but the % of people who picked them is at 67%, a bit higher than the 59% picked for Detroit.
Below is a sample template of the Low/Medium/High risk picks to insert confidence points based on the selected PREMIUM pick(s), which are part of the Premium Membership.
Note: in the sample, we chose to ONLY put the max confidence points for Jets (high risk) and Falcons (medium risks) respectively. You are welcome to choose one or two other money picks (of Jets Washington and Falcons Broncos picks in your chart). This graph is simply for reference.
Saturday 9/12/20 Update: since there is no longer a low risk (blue) pick for this week, the low risk section will mirror the base picks selections.