Testing the “all-in” strategy with data

Does the “all-in” strategy actually work? CPP reader Edgar Medina (@Ironclad) ran some computer simulations with the probabilities in the table from week 9, and tested the money picks (the blue, yellow, and green shaded picks). He tests the Giants (green money pick) at various confidence levels, all the upset picks, and various other scenarios using the two leagues he’s part of. Here’s […]

2019-08-28T08:10:31-07:00November 2nd, 2014|Reports|

How accurate are Moneyline picks?

For Confidence Pool Picks, I use the implied win probability that Moneylines give us to create the “base picks” each week. The idea is to assign higher win probabilities higher confidence values. But is Moneyline even accurate? I wanted to put this to the test. I analyzed data from the 2013 season, and compared what Moneyline values predicted to what actually […]

2019-09-11T20:09:42-07:00October 30th, 2014|Reports|

NFL Pick ‘Em/Confidence Pool Strategy

[This post has moved, please click here for the most updated version] Picking in a confidence pool league or Yahoo Pick Em League with confidence points involves two things: accuracy and contrarian-ness. Accuracy is picking the right team to win and putting the right confidence level to it. However, it’s virtually impossible to pick all the teams right. If it were easy, […]

2019-09-11T20:22:37-07:00September 16th, 2012|Reports|