Hello all, I had a couple requests for college bowl games. I’m not sure if there’s a standard format for them, but figure I’d cobble something together and hope it’s useful for you all!
I basically ranked all the teams based on win probability. The percent picked numbers were from a CBS website, but they may be based off of a pick ’em type game without the confidence points. But those were the only numbers out there I could find, so I went ahead and used them. Hopefully they’ll be close!
Without further ado, here’s the base picks chart I came up with:
Picks to call out:
Low risk, low picked:
Washington over Boise State – Washington is actually favored (63% win probability) but only 18% picked. This is a prime all in pick if you want to take a shot.
Blue lower risk picks:
Tulane, Ohio, and Utah State are pretty high win probability picks with only 25-31% of people picking them. These are potential “bump up” picks where you can go higher on the confidence level on these
Yellow medium risk picks:
Tennesee, FIU, K State, and “Southern Cal” (aka USC?) are good medium risk picks. Pick a few of these and go high.
Green high risk pick:
This would be Iowa State. 40% win probability, still pretty good, but only 13% picked.