I love having Thursday night games… it just makes us do my Yahoo PickEm picks earlier! It’s like football never ends… which I guess isn’t a bad thing.
For Week 3, there seem to be a bunch of good contrarian picks. I must admit, they do seem counter-intuitive to me. Miami favored over Atlanta? Carolina over the Giants? But the people who make the lines in Vegas have a lot more incentive to get it right than you and me, and it gives us the advantage in a Yahoo Pick em league.

Only 18% of the people picked Miami and Carolina. These are great contrarian pick candidates, even though it’s a little painful to think that Miami can beat the Falcons or Carolina can beat the Giants. Tennessee over San Diego is another option, with only 42% picked with a win probability of 62%. Washington and Detroit is another pick, although with the 18% options there isn’t a need to go there.
Usually I pick one of these highlighted games to go “all in” on (i.e. put 16 points on it). But this week with so many picks where Vegas odds go against the general public, I’m going to go straight win probability with a slight twist. I’ll sort within buckets of similar win probability (i.e. the bottom 7 games have a win probability between 57% and 59%), putting teams with less % picked higher as a tiebreaker. That way I’ll get some more contrarian-ness to try to separate me from the pack. So here are my picks for week 2:

Go Panthers, go Dolphins!