Welcome to our first installment of the CPP Doctor! Thank you to user @Pat for the submission. Let’s get started shall we? First, I assume that there’s a payout for the top 3 or so season winners, and for top 3 or so weekly winners.

 

  1. Size of league – Pat has a 44 team league. That’s small to medium sized. Risk adjustment: Bigger leagues mean bigger risks need to be taken.
  2. Current overall ranking – Pat is ranked 22nd out of 44. Smack dab in the middle. Risk adjustment: If you’re not in contention for the top 3 for the season, take more risk to try to win a weekly prize and perhaps put you back in contention for the season.
  3. How your league picks – I’m going to check where the base pick points would fall in the overall standings. If it’s high, then you need to take less risk and stick with base picks more. If it’s very low, then you need to take more risk. In Pat’s case, after Week 12, base picks would’ve gotten you 978 points. Checking with the standings, that would’ve been good for a 5th place. Which is pretty high, because how great is it that you do nothing but follow base picks and you get 5th place? This is like in soccer where you kick the penalty shot right down the middle for the goal. Why bother aiming for the sides if you can just score down the middle?

So base picks would’ve gotten you 5th place, but Pat is in 22nd place. What happened? I broke down what happened in each week and got this:

 

WeekPatBaseDiff
1105109-4
296960
399963
456560
55470-16
63460-26
783830
81161151
97177-6
1034322
119597-2
1289872

 

It looks like Weeks 5 and 6 were the issue. @Pat, if you can comment on what your strategy was in weeks 5 and 6 to shed some light on this! It seems like there’s too much risk taken, especially in Week 6. If you take a shot at a money pick, you will go negative vs base picks if your pick doesn’t hit, but it’s usually not as big as -16 or -26.

Finally, it seems like the top players in your league stick with mostly base picks. The #1 team is only +12 vs base picks.

Prescription:

Because he’s 22nd out of 44… Go for the weekly win

Go high if not all in with one money pick with higher win probabilities.It seems like for weeks 5 and 6 you went for too much risk. For future picks, go with one money pick all in, keep the base picks for the rest. Bump up an additional blue pick if you desire. For Week 14, this means a team like ARI (42% win prob, 16% picked) for 14 points and maybe TBB (58% win prob, 41% picked) bump to 10.

Best of luck!

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