Welcome to the 2nd installment of the CPP doctor. Thanks to Mark for submitting his league via email. Mark is in a smaller 10 team league, which means a little risk can go a long way. As of weeks 11 and 12, he was in the middle of the pack. I also added in the base pick scores to see where they would’ve fallen:

Standings
Wk 11 Wk 12
Jeff 909 Jeff 993
Bill 905 Bill 990
Kim 902 Kim 981
Kenny 899 Mark 979
Mark 896 BASE 978
BASE 891 Kenny 976
Steve 882 Steve 964
Will 881 Will 963
Dave 869 Dave 955
Mitch 867 Mitch 949
John 749 John 840

 

I’d like to think Mark’s score is so close to our base picks is because he uses this site! Mark submitted the Week 12 picks and results, and apparently his league uses good old fashion pen and paper:

 

I did a little spreadsheet work and came up with this:

 

[See Week 12 picks for reference]

This was for Week 12 (even though it says Week 11 on the sheet). It looks like Mark’s strategy was to go with our base picks, and then took a green pick (Washington) for 6 points. The pick hit, vaulting him to first place for the week. Thanks for submitting a week that our picks did well Mark!

Since Mark is in a smaller league, and is in range for a season win, I would go high with the blue or yellow picks. They have a higher chance of hitting, and with a smaller league it may be enough. In the case of Week 12, it worked out because the green pick hit. However…

Mark gave me an update and told me he’s now 12 points out of 3rd place, with 2 weeks to go. In this case, time is running out, and it may be time to shoot the moon and try for a green pick or at least a yellow pick with a low public picked rate. The only difference is I would go very high if not all-in with it, instead of the 6 points he went with in Week 12 with Washington. I usually go with around where the ~80% win probability is. For Week 15, that would be around 13 points (where NEP is). And the money pick would either be LAC at 44% win probability and 15% picked, or if you’re feeling frisky WAS at 34% win probability and 8% picked. If you’re going to shoot the moon, make it count, especially this late in the season!

Best of luck Mark!

[Check out CPP Doctor Diagnosis #1]