Thank you to Charlie (aka “Chuckles”) for submitting his team and league for our third CPP Doctor Diagnosis! Here’s the bottom of the standings for Charlie’s league… and unfortunately, that’s where Charlie’s team is:

And here’s his week 15 picks, where unfortunately he’s last:

The good news is, if you’re lower in the standings, you have nothing to lose and can take more risks. And I think that’s what Charlie was trying to do in Week 15. If you look at the Week 15 picks, he went with the Jets at 16 and Washington at 13 as all-in/high upset picks. Unfortunately neither of them hit and it led him to last place.

Charlie’s thinking is right; you’ll need to take some big risks to try to win the week. What he could do differently is to take the right amount of risk. The Jets had a 10% win probability with only 2% picked, so a win there would give you a great chance of winning. However, there were other teams that have that low percent picks but higher win probabilities. Cincinnati and Indianapolis were almost double the win probability. Carolina was 3 times the win probability at 3% picked. So if he wants to go all in and take a shot, go with one of these picks instead.

Charlie also picked Washington at 13. Washington was a money pick from Week 15, at a 34% win probability and 8% picked, so it had good value as an upset pick. However, Charlie doubled down on the upset picks by combining it with the Jets. That is probably too much risk to take. If the Jets had hit, he would’ve won… if he had not picked Washington.

What he should do… Charlie is on the right track. He needs to take some risks and go for first place for the week. However, he needs to stick with higher value picks… i.e. picks that have a low percent picked at the highest win probabilities. A pick such as the Jets, Cincinnati, and Indianapolis is in play for him, but in that case you only need to go with one pick. A pick with a higher win probability but lower percent picked may require two high upset picks.

If we look at Week 16, he probably needs a pick like Chicago at 5%. If he wants to push it more, go with a blue or yellow pick. Cincinnati looks like a good shot if he wants to do a second upset pick. Otherwise, stick with the base picks.

Bottom line… yup, you need to take some risks… go with the highest win probabilities you can get for the lowest percent picked. You might be able to win with one pick if the percent pick is very low, or two picks if you want to go with higher win probabilities but lower percent picked.

Best of luck Charlie!