And we’re down to the final four… Here are the probabilites:

Had an interesting discussion with @Terry. He’s in first place, with the 2nd place team 4 points back 3rd place 18 points back. Confidence points are 16 and 8. What do you do? Simplest answer: pick the favorites. When you’re winning, you go with the lowest risk strategy.
This is similar to a Final Jeopardy match when one person has the lead, but it’s not a runaway as the second place team has a little bit less, and the third place team has less than half. If you answer the question right, you win. In our case, if you pick the winners, you win.
The fun question is what would you do if you were in the 2nd or 3rd place positions? Let’s take 3rd place first. Most likely, you just bet it all and hope the other two bet big and lose. In this case, you go with both upsets… NE and SF. If you get paid for 3rd place, another strategy is to just go with the favorites and hope to hang on to third place.
2nd place is more interesting. You do need to pick one game contrary to the first place winner. But you don’t want to overdo it and lose to 3rd place. You basically have three choices, NE, SF, or the underdog in the Superbowl. If the two favorites win, then you can take the underdog in the Superbowl. The odds will probably be closer to 50/50 vs the 73/27 and 68/32 it is now. But would the first place team just take the underdog and risk the 2nd place team taking the favorites?
Bottom line, if you’re in the lead, take the favorites. If you’re in 2nd but within striking distance of first, take the favorites this week but the underdog next week. If you’re in a distant 3rd, take a couple of underdogs. I’m sure there are things like Nash equilibrum and game theory stuff you could apply, but it’s a little too early in the morning for that.
Good luck!