This week, Best Ball Badger is going to take another look at players that can give those boom games and a little oomph to your Draft lineups (draft.com/bestballbadger). There will be a big emphasis on WRs as the position tends to stay healthier and have more potential contributors to the starting lineup. RBs on the other hand get a lot more sustained upside from injury or winning the starting role outright and we’re not necessarily relying on a few big games to be helpful to the roster.
We talked about variance a few weeks back in this article:
https://confidencepoolpicks.com/the-importance-of-variance/
Now let’s take a look at WR 2018 point totals, averages per game, variance and current ADP (ADP as of 7/31):
| Player | Total | Avg | Variance | ADP |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 276.00 | 17.25 | 47.00 | 6.6 |
| Davante Adams | 274.10 | 18.27 | 20.96 | 7.4 |
| Julio Jones | 269.40 | 16.84 | 44.85 | 10.8 |
| Michael Thomas | 253.00 | 15.81 | 79.09 | 12 |
| Odell Beckham | 191.84 | 15.99 | 39.78 | 13.2 |
| Tyreek Hill | 290.50 | 18.16 | 139.72 | 14.5 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 241.40 | 15.09 | 58.55 | 16 |
| Antonio Brown | 271.70 | 18.11 | 60.52 | 21.6 |
| Mike Evans | 247.40 | 15.46 | 64.47 | 22.1 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 201.00 | 14.36 | 53.55 | 27.7 |
| Adam Thielen | 250.80 | 15.68 | 48.72 | 29.8 |
| Amari Cooper | 178.00 | 11.87 | 168.12 | 30.9 |
| Keenan Allen | 211.60 | 14.11 | 41.45 | 32.8 |
| Stefon Diggs | 215.30 | 14.35 | 62.54 | 37.2 |
| A.J. Green | 126.40 | 14.04 | 49.23 | 37.2 |
| Julian Edelman | 170.42 | 14.20 | 11.56 | 40.9 |
| Brandin Cooks | 203.20 | 13.55 | 37.94 | 41.2 |
| Robert Woods | 222.60 | 13.91 | 42.66 | 43.4 |
| Chris Godwin | 155.70 | 9.73 | 47.68 | 44 |
| Kenny Golladay | 174.10 | 11.61 | 41.81 | 46.4 |
| Tyler Lockett | 193.90 | 12.12 | 18.59 | 49.5 |
| Mike Williams | 158.70 | 9.92 | 72.74 | 52.3 |
| Calvin Ridley | 174.80 | 10.93 | 85.29 | 53.5 |
| D.J. Moore | 129.50 | 8.09 | 41.03 | 55.8 |
| Cooper Kupp | 115.10 | 14.39 | 88.87 | 56.1 |
| Allen Robinson | 125.80 | 9.68 | 44.81 | 62.2 |
| Robby Anderson | 131.40 | 9.39 | 70.21 | 64.1 |
| Tyler Boyd | 183.10 | 13.08 | 48.60 | 64.4 |
| Christian Kirk | 102.00 | 8.50 | 24.91 | 69.6 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 152.80 | 11.75 | 48.59 | 70.3 |
| Dante Pettis | 90.00 | 7.50 | 72.05 | 72.7 |
| Jarvis Landry | 176.62 | 11.04 | 38.14 | 73.4 |
| Will Fuller | 90.30 | 12.90 | 59.80 | 76.6 |
| Sammy Watkins | 95.10 | 9.51 | 69.89 | 77.6 |
| Marvin Jones | 98.30 | 10.92 | 48.34 | 84.1 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 92.00 | 5.75 | 26.50 | 85 |
| Sterling Shepard | 149.50 | 9.34 | 31.22 | 91.2 |
| Curtis Samuel | 117.30 | 9.02 | 30.10 | 91.6 |
| Corey Davis | 153.10 | 9.57 | 54.96 | 91.7 |
| Courtland Sutton | 115.30 | 7.21 | 18.95 | 97.7 |
| Dede Westbrook | 146.50 | 9.16 | 29.94 | 100.4 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 151.18 | 9.45 | 26.07 | 101.3 |
| DeSean Jackson | 130.80 | 10.90 | 60.53 | 104.8 |
| Donte Moncrief | 106.80 | 6.68 | 35.50 | 112.2 |
| Golden Tate | 145.90 | 9.73 | 58.67 | 115.3 |
| Devin Funchess | 100.90 | 7.21 | 27.28 | 125.7 |
| Tyrell Williams | 117.30 | 7.82 | 43.93 | 131.4 |
| Anthony Miller | 103.72 | 6.91 | 28.97 | 132.2 |
| Tre’Quan Smith | 86.70 | 6.67 | 83.03 | 134.6 |
| Michael Gallup | 81.20 | 5.41 | 20.31 | 142.1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 162.72 | 13.56 | 49.50 | 144.7 |
| John Brown | 122.90 | 7.68 | 49.53 | 159.8 |
| Kenny Stills | 115.92 | 7.73 | 57.73 | 163.7 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 149.40 | 9.34 | 27.58 | 172.6 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 75.90 | 6.90 | 59.90 | 180.7 |
| Robert Foster | 85.60 | 7.78 | 47.36 | 181.3 |
| Albert Wilson | 83.78 | 11.97 | 96.31 | 188.5 |
| Josh Gordon | 118.20 | 9.85 | 25.05 | 189.5 |
| Antonio Callaway | 110.80 | 6.93 | 31.31 | 190.9 |
| David Moore | 88.00 | 6.29 | 49.83 | 191.3 |
| Adam Humphries | 150.70 | 9.42 | 34.41 | 194.4 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 118.40 | 7.40 | 38.59 | 196.5 |
| Zay Jones | 137.20 | 8.58 | 59.68 | 200.9 |
| Nelson Agholor | 133.40 | 8.34 | 38.73 | 210.3 |
| Josh Reynolds | 85.50 | 7.13 | 50.98 | 214.7 |
| Danny Amendola | 97.92 | 6.53 | 18.25 | 215.2 |
You might be wondering why this chart is sorted by ADP instead of by Variance. After all, this article is about boom games. The reason is that the boom games for your first 2 receivers don’t really matter that much. It doesn’t matter if they score 10 points, 15 points, or 30 points in a week, since they will likely be part of your starting lineup in any given week. For these early picks, you’re looking for highest projected output and low risk (due to injury or other). The only thing keeping Tyreek Hill out of the first round is his massive risk. One more incident and he could be suspended for the season. If he plays the entire year, it’s hard not to imagine him outperforming his ADP even as an early second rounder.
Dante Pettis, Will Fuller, and Sammy Watkins are in the 7th round where variance starts to get a little more impactful. They all are coming off injury and could have huge seasons if they could stay healthy. We like Dante Pettis who is the projected #1 target coming into his second season with a healthy Garoppolo. Best Ball Badger recommends avoiding Fuller and Watkins who have yet to show they can stay healthy. We would rather draft Alshon Jeffery or Marvin Jones around that draft position. These two have big play ability and been able to put together full seasons.
Desean Jackson has been slowly creeping up the draft boards, but is still a great pick in the middle of the 9th. Jackson is still one of the best deep threats in the league. Pairing that up with one of the best deep ball throwers in Wentz is a formula for Best Ball success.
Golden Tate is in this range, but he’s transitioning to one of the worst passing offenses in the league and has a pending 4 game suspension due to PEDs from fertility treatments. Surrounding Tate in ADP are Moncrief and Funchess. Both are much more interesting prospects given their touchdown potential on projected high powered offenses.
Tre’Quan Smith has not gotten much press this offseason. Last year, he showed flashes and we expect him to build on his deep ball success. The Saints are likely to get into some high scoring games given their divisional opponents (Falcons, Panthers, and Buccaneers) and they’ll have to air it out at times even with their recent emphasis on the run.
We’ll finish with a pair of Dolphins receivers that are not getting any respect. Kenny Stills has always been good at getting behind defenses. Albert Wilson (when healthy) is one of the most dynamic players in the open field. Both receivers are going to have their games as long as Fitzpatrick holds on to the starting job. Fitzpatrick will throw often and deep with reckless abandon. That doesn’t translate well to team success, but it is certainly great for Best Ball. Unfortunately, the team will eventually turn it over to Rosen at some point to see what they have in him.
Goodwin and Zay Jones are not interesting prospects given all the change and influx in WR to their teams. Keep an eye on how things play out in preseason as opportunities are constantly changing.
As always, good luck in your drafts (draft.com/bestballbadger) and if you have any questions, do not hesitate and e-mail us ([email protected]).
Written on 7/31/19 by Winston Lee (Updated 8/3/19)