Welcome to Week 1 of the 2014 NFL season! Between the flurry of fantasy league drafts, Pick ‘Em leagues, and for me moving cities and a vacation to Vegas (where I learned a little bit more about how these Moneyline picks work), the season seems to come up on you fast!
This year, I’ve set up our own confidence pool league on Yahoo. Please join and we can have some fun with our own people! Just leave your email address in the box on the right and I’ll send you the info. Play for some fabulous prizes.
And now on to the picks…
For the first few weeks, Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats), whose win probabilities I like to use, doesn’t have info because there isn’t enough data to make projections. So I will be using only Moneyline data from Yahoo until that data is up.
To review, “Picked” is the percentage of people who picked that team to win in Yahoo leagues. As mentioned above, this week Win Prob is the implied win probability based off Moneyline (in the future I will incorporate Advanced Football Analytics data).  Here are the picks for Week 1 of the 2014 NFL Season:
Week 1We look for instances where the percent picked is very different from the win probability. The best are ones where the win probability is very high but the percent picked is very low; those make the best picks to push to differentiate yourself from others.
For this week, I’ve color coded games where the percent picked is different from the win probability. The darker the green, the more of an upset it is and the more you can consider moving the pick up. The darker the red, the more you should move that pick down (or even flip it and pick the other side). The St. Louis game against Minnesota is the best candidate for an upset pick; 64% implied probability according to Moneyline but only 50% of the people are picking it. New England, as usual, has a very high percentage of people picking them (94%) despite only having a 69% win probability. Move them down if you want to differentiate yourself from the field.
Good luck in Week 1! Looking forward to a fun season, check back here often and keep up the comments, I love to hear from you.