Welcome to the official kickoff of the 2016 season of Confidence Pool Picks! Hope you all had a great offseason. I’m ready for some football!
For those who may be new, here are some of the pages to check out to see how things work:
- The CPP strategy of picking base picks mostly and 1-2 contrarian picks big (the “money” picks)
- A step-by-step guide to how to use the picks on this site
- Some reports on how valid the all-in money pick strategy is, and how accurate are the win probabilities that I publish.
Without further ado, here are the picks for Week 1. I will probably be updating these as we go along, so check back often.
Updated Sunday 7 AM Eastern
Base picks (FREE)
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Money picks for this week: (What’s a money pick? See here for confidence pool pick strategy!)
- Green picks (high risk, high reward): Jac over GB still remains as best all-in pick, with Det over Ind not far behind. SD over KC is third pick. Update: Det over Ind has improved, pretty much just as good as the Jac over GB pick.
- Yellow picks (medium risk, medium reward): NYJ over Cin is the best yellow pick for this week. TB over Atl and Was over Pit are other picks. Update Sun: Was over Pit has improved in win probability and slightly less people picking them
- Blue picks (low risk, low reward): Min over Ten and Dal over NYG are the blue picks. Update: Dal over NYG has improved, with less people now picking Dallas despite being even odds. Update Sun: Dal pick has improved even more, only 32% people picking now.
My money picks for the week: Jacksonville over GB and NYJ over Cin. Would be tempted to go with Jac 16 and NYJ 15 in a big league.
Update: Detroit over Indy is now look just as good (and I wouldn’t have to root against the Packers). Dallas and NYJ are great bump up or all in picks if you need more contrarian-ness.