Two shots again this week. Here are the baseline picks by win probability:

I’ve highlighted a few in green that are potential contrarian picks. The Giants vs Oakland is a great secondary pick… although 87% picked them to win, they only picked them at 6.6 confidence despite a 77% win probability. Cincinnati vs Baltimore has the same situation if you believe the Advanced NFL Stats model. However, no good primary “people’s upset” picks stick out this week. Best we can do is Minnesota over Washington (25% picked, 44% win prob) and Buffalo over Pittsburgh (30%, 44%).  A couple big upset picks are SD to beat Denver (5%, 30%) and Carolina over SF (9%, 30%).
For me, I’m going to go with the Minnesota over Washington all in pick and bump up the Giants. For my dad, I’m going to go big or go home: picking San Diego to upset Denver and hedging everything else a bit to match the public’s average confidence.
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