Welcome to Week 12 of the NFL season! It’s coming down the wire. For those of you who aren’t in the overall season win hunt, it’s a fun time to take some all in gambles.
Happenings from this week:

  • Most of you are probably already Confidence Pool veterans, but if not I made two videos that show how to enter in your picks using Yahoo’s Pick ’em site using this site.
  • I also added a general discussion board. Feel free to pop over there for general discussions, especially for last second questions for our community and chatter during games. Also feel free to continue to comment here as well.
  • @gggg calculated what the base picks would’ve netted you so far this year, and @Ironclad posted a chart of the the trade-off between going for season wins and weekly wins in this post.

Last week I stuck with the base picks, since I was in 6th place in my league. As I mentioned to @John, basically I punted and was playing for field position. I did end up moving up one spot, and although it was the safe thing to do, it was pretty boring. I didn’t have that one big matchup to root for. I am 34 points out of first place, so at some point I’m going to have to heave one. There have been many questions about when to go for the weekly win and risk dropping in the overall standings. Might be a good separate post.
Without further adieu, here are the picks for Week 12.

Click here to pop out picks for easy entering
The green picks are getting hard to come by. There’s one green pick, and that’s TB for 31% over Chicago. If you’re way out of a season win and want to go for it on 4th down, you can go for Det over NE, Mia over Den, or Oak over KC (which I’ve labeled as light green picks).
There’s one yellow pick, and that’s NYG at 38% win prob over Dallas. Light yellow marginal picks are NYJ and StL.
There are two legit blue picks. Hou over Cin is a favorite you might consider bumping up. Seattle over Arizona is a bit out of the realm of a typical blue pick, with 70% of the people picking them, but their win prob is so high at 72% they’re worth an all bump up pick.
One good strategy for this week may be to do a double all in, with Seattle plus a second money pick. I plan on going Seattle around 12 as a mixed strategy.
Thanks all! I’m curious to know how much your league pays out for 1st, 2nd,  and 3rd place OVERALL season (I’ll ask weekly next week). Answer in the poll below! Good luck!

How are you going to do in 2021?
248 votes · 248 answers
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