There’s been some great discussions on the comments the last few weeks. Thanks to @GM and @Frank for contributing. @Frank has questioned the all-in strategy, and I have some new information about how our league pays out that supports his thinking.
Here’s the data for this week’s picks.

Note I did not count ANS’s 83% probability for the Packers; one thing about a mathematical model is it doesn’t know that Aaron Rodgers is out. And as a Packer fan, I know that is pretty important to consider. The Moneyline gambler folks know Aaron Rodgers is out, so I’ll go with their pick. Turns out it doesn’t change the rankings.
The Arizona vs Indy game is a big opportunity. High win probability (64%) with not many people picking it (28%). For my picks, I’m not going to take as much risk as before because I found out that our league pays pretty well for overall season rankings. By taking less risk, I can increase my chances of winning the overall season rankings. However, this week potential contrarian picks already have relatively high win probabilities; so I’m going to go ahead and bump them up all the way:

For Dad, since he’s not in the running for an overall season win, I’m going to go for some all-in picks to try to win weeks. This week’s all-in pick: San Diego (39% win, 5% picked) over KC.

I added a “Diff Conf” column to see how my pick differed from the average pick. The higher the number, the more I need the win. If the number is negative, I actually need a loss. This is for the overall grand average, not my specific league.
So this week, I get the joy (or hearthache?) of cheering on my team to help bring home the money! In Scott Tolzien we trust.