Last week, I belatedly found out how the payouts were divided. @Frank was telling me that I was taking too much risk in my “all-in” picks, but I was trying to win the weekly game instead of trying to win the overall season picks. I found out what the payouts were this week: the overall points winner wins more than 5 times the weekly game winner. So basically, it makes sense for me to go for maximum points for the season instead of the weekly win; so I won’t be going all in as much, only choosing good opportunities to bump the confidence up a bit when going contrarian.
Here are the win probabilities from Moneyline and Advanced NFL stats, and how they rank. The article for the ANS probabilities talks about how the model could be adjusted to account for the fact that Matt Flynn is playing instead of Aaron Rodgers. Pretty good read.
Here are the baseline picks. Minnesota over Chicago is a good contrarian pick, and Philly over Arizona would be a mild one (64% picked, 62% win probability). If you aren’t in the overall points race, bigger contrarian picks would be Atlanta (17%, 39%) over Buffalo, Tennessee (11%, 35%) over Indianapolis, and Houston (2%, 68%) over New England. Atlanta over Buffalo is the only one that passes the smell test.

Going with my change in strategy, I will stick with mostly baseline picks but up Minnesota and Philly a tad. This week, I’m home for Thanksgiving, so Dad is actually sitting next to me to make his own picks. I’m going to see if I can convince him to take Minnesota and/or Atlanta all-in. Here are my picks: