Couple of notes for Week 14: Green Bay vs Atlanta had no line because of the uncertainty over Aaron Rodgers. I assigned a 50/50 split for them, and it averaged out to 57%, which felt right. Rodgers practiced but wasn’t clear to play. Also, New England vs Cleveland had no Moneyline assigned to it, which I still haven’t found an answer to why. I gave it a 80% win probability based off the 11 point favorite status, which averaged out to 72%. That felt right too.
I’ve highlighted potential deep upset picks in dark green. The best one of the bunch is Washington over KC (5% picked, 45% win probability). The ANS article talks about the Washington probability. Atlanta over GB might be an interesting choice as well, since Rodgers may not play.
The lighter green indicates milder contrarian picks. These are better bets, since you can pick the favorite and they have a higher win probability. But you trade off picking against less people. If you want to take a little more risk, go higher on these teams than baseline.
I’m going to go straight up with this one and not going all-in; vying for the overall season championship.