Last week, all nine money picks whiffed. According to the probabilities, there was an 0.06% chance of that happening. So, I basically won the lottery in reverse. I guess this makes up for the week when almost all the money picks hit.
The closet one was Cleveland, who lost to Indianapolis on the final drive of the game. Watching that game, I was yelling at TV hoping it would compel them into letting Indy score so they’d have time to come back and kick a FG (there’s some articles on Advanced Football Analytics that tell you when to intentionally allow a score, but I didn’t find one for this exact situation). But no, even after they got to the 1 yard line on a first and goal, they opted to try to stop them 4 times. And they almost did…
Week 15 doesn’t look much better, although the chances of missing all money picks again are very low. The green money picks aren’t that great, and there are a couple of fringe yellow picks. Seems like it’s a little harder later in the season; maybe the strategy next year is to take more chances in the beginning of the season and try to ride it out later.
Green money picks: As mentioned above, a little tough. Buffalo at 31% over Green Bay is the best I can do, with Washington over NYG and Houston over Indy as the next best.
Yellow money picks: Atlanta with a 43% win probability is good, however 29% of the other people also picked ATL. TB is probably you best chance, with a 37% win prob and 19% picked. It looks like Cam Newton won’t play after his unfortunate car accident, so that may be one to check back on. As always, subscribe to our email list to find out when we post the update.
The one blue money pick is the NYJ at 54% win probability and 42% picked.
All the money picks aren’t great this week. If you have the luxury of holding serve for an overall win, this would be the week to do it.