Welcome to Week 16! Last week, I had the opportunity to have the unique experience of attending a money pick game in person, and having it hit. Unfortunately, it was a Buffalo upset against the Packers.
My Buffalo for 14 money pick however only got me to 5th place, as my blue money pick of St. Louis for 13 didn’t hit. This was a case where I went too far by bumping up St Louis as well. However if they would have won, I would have had 1st place easily. In this case, going against Edgar’s analysis backfired:
“There’s definitely some good fav-dog combos in there, but none are appreciably better than picking a single upset at max points.”
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Dallas over Philly was a yellow money pick hit, and the Jets over Tennessee was a blue pick hit. Anyone go all in with Dallas? You might’ve done pretty well with that pick too.
On to Week 16. This week, there are a lot of better money picks, so this might be a week to give one pick a go. The Carolina-Cleveland game has no line, presumably because of Cam Newton’s uncertain status. So I did the next best thing, I took the public picks and dropped it about 10%, which is about what last year’s data showed.

The best green pick so far is Cincinnati over Denver, with a 39% win probability but only 12% picking them. If you want to go more contrarian, Oakland upsetting last week’s money pick darling Buffalo is a 30% win at 9% picked game.
The yellow picks are looking good this week too, with Kansas City being the best pick at 41% win and 20% picked. Tennessee and NYG are two other ones.
The blue picks are Dallas over Indy at 59% win and 49% picked, and SF over SD at 53% and 43%.
There are games on Saturday this week, so if I get a chance I may do two updates this week. If you’re not on the email list to get updates, hit the big blue button on the top right of this page.
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