Last week of the regular season! I’m currently in first place overall for my league after my Week 16 picks netted me a first place finish. All without the use of the Advanced NFL Stats data.
Since this is the last week of the season, I wanted to thank everyone who came along with the ride. I hope this blog helped you with your picks and won you money (and/or bragging rights). Thanks to George and Frank who chimed in with their opinions and methods, it made me think and improved my picks as I learned throughout the season. I hope to do some analysis over the off-season to test the methods that were talked about this year. Next year, I hope to make the tables more graphical and easier to read (I do realize they’re not the easiest to read… I just dumped them off my Excel spreadsheet that I used in my weekly analysis). Would love to hear from all of you in the comments on how you did and what you thought!
I had an interesting experience regarding this site when I was at a bar in Chicago. From the analytics, I know many people there read this blog. There was a lady who was there on what looked like an awkward first date, and I overheard her say “I just googled ‘Confidence Pool Picks’ and found this website that I use to make my picks.” I thought about asking her if it was this site she used, but in the end didn’t do it. If you’re that lady, please comment and let me know!
Finally, if you’d like to be kept updated for next year, please subscribe to this blog by entering your email address below. We’ll only use it to provide reminders and updates, and if I do any analysis over the off-season. You can unsubscribe any time. Sorry about the really long field, I’m not sure how to fix that yet and wanted to get this post out!


Without further adieu, here are the picks for Week 17:
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I didn’t use the ANS stats for the GB vs Chi game and the Min vs Detroit game. Aaron Rodgers is set to play for my Packers, which ANS doesn’t take into account (it has the entire season averaged in to its pick, meaning Scott Tolzien, Seneca Wallance, and Matt Flynn make up a good chunk of the model). Adrian Peterson is supposed to sit out for Min, so I stuck with the Moneyline pick for them as well.
The best “people’s upset” pick is San Diego, if you want to go high on them. If you need to take some bigger risks, try the ones shaded in dark green: Houston, the Jets, Atlanta, Cleveland, and Washington. Not many people are picking them, so if you get lucky, it’ll be the biggest bang for your buck.
Good luck! See you in the playoffs.