Week 3 is upon us! Week 2 brought us no less than 10 upsets, which means our base picks didn’t do so well.
Total points if you stuck with base picks from last week: 43
I ended up in the money, but only because I screwed up. The good news is, getting so many upsets isn’t very likely. On average, you’ll get 1/3 upsets, or about 5 in a typical 16 team week. So we don’t have to feel too bad about doing bad in a week with 10 upsets. It’s really hard to pick 1 upset right, much less a whole bunch.

How much did these picks help?

Here are the picks for this week. Starting from this week, I’ll keep the table below live so if I make any changes throughout the week it’ll update.

Updated Saturday 9/26: Win probabilities have shifted the base picks a bit, unfortunately I didn’t keep a snapshot of the previous picks so I can’t tell you which ones… other than Carolina has jumped up a bunch with the news that Drew Brees is out. 
For Week 3, there are many more high probability picks, so there should be less upsets. Seattle and New England are gimmies at the top. Scores should be higher this week, so I wouldn’t take too big of risks this week.
Green picks:

  • San Francisco over Arizona (28% win prob, 6% picked) 
  • KC over GB (27%, 5%)

The green picks aren’t very attractive this week (of course, no way the Packers lose to KC??? Knock on wood…) as they’re all below 30% win probabilities. But if you’re going for the weekly win, these are it!
Yellow picks:

  • Update 9/26: St. Louis over Pittsburgh (49%, 16%) has gotten even better, with win prob increasing and public picked dropping a couple percentage points.
  • Detroit over Denver (38%, 13%)

St. Louis over Pittsburgh is the best money pick this week.
Blue picks:

  • Miami over Buffalo (59%, 45%)
  • NYJ over Philly (56%, 49%) Update Saturday 9/26: NYJ now has 70% public picked, so it falls out of the Blue money pick category

Best of luck!

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