Here are the picks for Week 3:

Blue pick (lowest risk): One word: Denver. This is the week you want to pick Denver, with an 85% win probability and only 9 total wins in the season.

Yellow pick (medium risk): CAR and ARI. Both are good picks this week, with win probabilities at 77-78% and only 7-8 wins in the whole season.

Green pick (high risk, high rewards): None. The remaining teams all have many wins remaining, and have lower win probabilities.

My pick: I’d go Denver or bust here, except I already took them in my big league. So I’ll go with Arizona since I also already used up Carolina. (This is setting me up for some TB or KC type picks down the line!)

 

To review:

Win probability: This is the most important. If you lose you get a strike or if you’re in a one strike pool, you’re out. So you want teams that have a high shot of winning.

Predicted wins: These are how many wins a team is predicted to have this season. This is important because you can only pick a team once in a year, and if a team is really good and will win a lot of games in the season, you would want to save them for later picks.

% picked: This tells us how much of the public has picked this team. With all else being equal, you want to pick a team that less people have picked.