Welcome to Week 4! Week 3 was back to normal, with 4 upsets. The unfortunate thing is we went 0-5 on money picks, so if you went all in on a game, hope it wasn’t with one of my picks! We had the best money pick in a while, with St. Louis and a 49% win probability with only 16% public picked, but they were just not able to muster enough offense to beat Pittsburgh.
In my league, I’ve been noticing a disturbing trend of not just my money picks not hitting, but if they do hit I would not have won anyway. The one week I picked two money picks by accident, hit them both, and still finished 3rd. This might mean I need to take more risk, i.e. two money picks, or it could just be bad luck and I should just hold off and have faith in the statistics. Anyways…
Total base points for Week 3:  113

If you took first place or were in the money, take a victory lap in the comments section and tell us what your strategy was!
Anyways, on to Week 4. It’s showing some pretty decent money picks, led by Tampa Bay over Carolina. We do have one game that’s showing as “OFF”, and that’s the Saints vs the Cowboys. Drew Brees has a bum shoulder, and may or may not play. I assigned a slight favorite to NO, because I think if Brees plays the Saints are favored, and if he doesn’t it’s the battle of backup QB’s and the game is pretty even. If there is an update to the Vegas lines, I will post an update here. [Update 10/2: New Orleans now was an opening win prob of 61%]

Green picks:

  • Tampa Bay (39% win prob, 8% picked) over Carolina
  • Houston (28%, 3%) over Atlanta
  • St. Louis (27%, 2%) over Arizona

Yellow picks:

  • Washington (39%, 14%) over Philly
  • NYG (31%, 12%) over Buffalo

Blue picks:

  • Update 10/2: New Orleans (61%, 40%) now has a line, and is now the best blue pick
  • NYJ (54%, 50%) over Miami
  • Baltimore (58%, 55%) over Pittsburgh

Best of luck to you all! I was asked about some of things I can offer to the sponsors of this site, and one of the things I was going to do is to provide the spreadsheet I use to fill out my picks complete with all the data that I post here. All the info is still here, the spreadsheet just makes it easier to fill out your picks so you can enter them into your pool’s website. I’ll probably have it in the next week or so, and I’ll send it out for your feedback.
Thanks everyone for participating, and best of luck to you!