Welcome to Week 4 of the NFL Season! Week 3 showed a big hit in money pick Buffalo, but my Cincinnati bump up did not materialize so I did not end up in the money. Carson Wentz’s Eagles money pick also hit last week, but again did not help me win the week as my ill advised Tennessee bump didn’t work out (and even dropped out of contention on the Sunday update). Hope you did better! If so, tell us all in the comments section.
Base pick score from last week: 71 (However, this does include the Sunday update that moved Tennessee out in favor of Oakland).

Updated Sunday 2:40 AM Eastern

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Updated Sunday 2:40 AM Eastern

Green pick: The best green pick this week is by far Tampa Bay, at 41% win prob but only 7% picked. Buffalo over New England is another one. Buffalo has had NE’s number in the past, but the Patriots seem to always come through to win. Update Thursday: Tennessee has improved to a solid green pick. Update Sunday: Kansas City is now the green pick.
Yellow: Yellow picks aren’t that much better than the green picks this week. SF over Dal and Chi over Det are it, but they are only a couple % higher in win probability with more people picking them. Update Thursday: San Francisco is now a solid yellow pick at 48% win probability.
Blue: A pretty good blue pick here with Bal at 62% win. Update Sunday: Bal is improved a few percentage points. 
Best of luck this week!