Week 4 has two natural contrarian picks: Pittsburgh over Minnesota (61% win probability for Pittsburgh but only 39% of the people picking them) and Detroit over Chicago (59%, 35%). Not as good as last week‘s contrarian picks, but pretty good nonetheless. Another interesting choice this week is Seattle with only a 57% probability over Houston, but with 79% of the people picking Seattle.
I decided to take both the Pittsburgh and Detroit picks and go up to 9 and 8 confidence points, which is about 4-5 points higher than they would’ve naturally fallen using pure Moneyline probability. So this week, I will be rooting for Pittsburgh and Detroit, and a Houston upset over Seattle since I only picked a 1 for Seattle.
My question for this week… If I’m going to go so contrarian for the Seattle game, should I have just picked the upset and given it more points? Should I have elevated Pittsburgh or Detroit to 15 points and went all in?