Week 4 was not kind to me. I ended up with 87, tied for 16th place out of 52 teams. Top scorer had 109 points, 2nd place 100, and third place 98. I’m not even pictured in the results summary. Here are my results:

One of my contrarian picks, Pittsburgh, lost to Adrian Peterson and the Vikings in London. Losing a contrarian pick is pretty painful, as you went against everyone and were wrong. The other contrarian pick, Detroit over Chicago, paid off as the Lions beat the Bears (oh my). The other semi-contrarian pick, Seattle with only 1 point, didn’t work out as well, but it was pretty damn close as Seattle barely pulled off an overtime comeback victory (Matt Schaub with a really stupid pick 6 in the 4th quarter, which got a hamburger named after him).
In my last post, I wondered out loud if I I’m going to go contrarian, shouldn’t I just go all in because if I lose I’m hosed anyway? Or else I should just go with the crowd. So let’s see what would’ve happened had I employed other strategies:
One contrarian pick all-in for 16 points (Detroit, since I know they won… if I used the Pittsburgh game it’s obvious I would’ve lost anyway), with everyone else by win probability:

I would’ve netted 90 points, or tied for 10th place. Still out of the money.
Straight win probability:

88 points. Not much better than the 87 I got.
Houston would’ve held on to upset over Seattle:
Too hard to show work here, but I’d be around tied for 7th or 8th.
Pittsburgh would’ve beat Seattle (they were favored but lost):
I’d be tied for 3rd.
So my biggest setback was Pittsburgh getting upset by Minnesota. The disappointing thing is I would’ve only ended up tied for 3rd, and not in first place. And this game wasn’t really close. I guess if the Pittsburgh win plus Houston hanging on would’ve gotten me the win.
Moral of the story:
I think this week was just a bad week. Maybe one takeaway is I needed to take a little more risk, because even if one chip fell into place like Houston winning or Pittsburgh winning I wouldn’t have gotten first place. I needed to either go all in Pittsburgh or Detroit, or pick a moderate upset for Seattle over Houston.
Week 4 Results:
2013-10-02_1716