***BREAKING NEWS: Andrew Luck is out, Houston win probability shoots up to 67%, 8 base points***
Hello all,  welcome to Week 5! Week 4 had three money picks hit (St. Louis, NY Giants, an Washington), so hopefully a bunch of us finished in the money. I unfortunately went with one of the picks that didn’t hit, Tampa Bay.
Week 4 Base Pick Points: 95

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I’ve had a few questions on what the picks mean… if you haven’t checked it out yet, my strategy page explains the idea behind this table. I’m also going to work on a write up or infographic that’ll give a simpler explanation of the strategy.
On to week 5:

Green picks:
Oakland (34% win probability, 9% picked) over Denver is the best one. Cleveland (28%, 6%) is next, followed by SF (27%, 5%) over the Giants. They’re a bit tougher this week with 2 teams on bye.
Yellow picks:
We have two very good yellow picks, both over 40%. Detroit (42%, 15%) over Arizona and Tennessee (45%, 18%) over Buffalo are out there for the picking.
Blue pick:
There’s one awesome blue pick, Houston (51%, 31%) over Indianapolis. It’s rare to get a pick with a win probability over 51% that’s picked by only 31% of the public.  Update 10/8: With the news that Andrew Luck is doubtful, the pick has only gotten better (67%, 32%). If you’re a Thursday night lock league, jump on this and you should get ahead of the competition.
This might be a good week to bump up a secondary pick, with the great blue and yellow picks. By “bump up” I mean not necessarily go all in, but go with a milder upset (like instead of going 14 points with Detroit, go 7) as a second pick to help move you ahead of the pack. Or in the case of Houston, bump them higher in points – instead of 1, make them 8, for example. I’m considering going with a double all in, since it seems like my 58 person league has been scoring pretty high.
Best of luck to you all!

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