Couple of great upsets last week, the best of which was Minnesota over Atlanta. In the Week 4 update, the new Moneyline data moved Atlanta up to 7 points after many of us wondered why Atlanta was ranked so low with Minnesota missing AP and Matt Cassel. Then Minnesota went ahead and showed us all by beating Atlanta.
Got some great interaction with readers this week!

  • @Erikz called the KC upset of NE. Nice call Erik!
  • @Patrick posed a strategic question about going “All-in” with upset picks, and how he believes if there are high probability picks out there, you don’t gain any ground by doing that. I’m tending to agree with that. This might be subject of another blog post, and a revision of the strategy page. Others last year brought up the point too, and I’m thinking you all are right on this.

Got a few requests for improvements that I have or will be implementing:

  • @Dave requested having the data into a table format.  – Complete, it’s embedded below
  • @Web asked for home and away teams to be indicated – Done. Home teams are BOLDED.
  • @Andy asked for the spreadsheets to calculations himself. – Needs a little more time, but I will work on that. 

Please keep the suggestions coming! Anything I can do to improve this site.
And now on to the picks for this week. We are putting Patrick’s thinking in play,  as there are a lot of high win probability games this week. It’s probably not a good week to be taking high risks and moving upset picks all the way up.

However, there are a couple opportunities to distance yourself from the crowd. SF has a 72% win probability but only 76% of the people are picking them (guess the big KC win over NE is still on people’s minds! However, they won’t have 142 decibels of crowd noise this week). You can consider bumping SF up this week. NYG, Car, and Ten are also bump up candidates, up maybe 3-4 spots if you’re so inclined.
The big upset pick this week is Baltimore over Indy. Baltimore has a 36% chance of winning with only 14% picking them. Pick them for 4-5 points this week if you want to go for an upset.
To summarize:
Bump up candidates:

  • SF as much as 14,
  • NYG to 8-9
  • Car and/or Ten to 5-6
  • NE to 4-5

Upset picks:

  • NE over Cin, to 4
  • Bal over Ind, up to 5

Good luck!